French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Capablanca Line
6.2K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
54.8%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 55.9%.
Measured over 6.2K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 7.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 6.2K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 6.2K
- Best context
- 58.5% at 2500+ Bullet
- Worst context
- 55.0% at 2000-2199 Blitz
- Average game length
- 36 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 92.2%
- Draws
- 7.8%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 31.5% at 0-999, 52.9% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (10 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 30.7% expected score (14 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 13.7% expected score (4 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 38.6% expected score (16 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (23 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 70.3% expected score (33 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (19 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (13 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (45 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 44.2% expected score (33 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (15 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 56.7% expected score (73 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 43.9% expected score (104 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (29 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (155 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (447 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 59.7% expected score (50 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 59.1% expected score (15 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (329 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (1,321 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 60.7% expected score (144 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 34.0% expected score (11 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.4% expected score (951 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 56.2% expected score (1,381 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 61.5% expected score (155 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 76.3% expected score (8 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 58.5% expected score (579 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 58.8% expected score (208 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 64.3% expected score (9 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Capablanca Line scores 54.8% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.8% and 55.9% — from 6.2K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 6.2K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Capablanca Line win rate?
Playing the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Capablanca Line, White wins 50.9%, draws 7.8% and loses 41.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.8%. It rests on 6.2K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Capablanca Line perform best?
The French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Capablanca Line performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 58.6% (797 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Capablanca Line better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Capablanca Line scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 54.5% in Blitz (3.5K games) against 59.1% in Rapid (424 games).
How sharp is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Capablanca Line?
The French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Capablanca Line has a sharpness score of 92.2 (decisive), meaning 92.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Capablanca Line win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 46.1%, draws 5.9% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 210 Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Capablanca Line win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 49.2%, draws 3.8% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 672 Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Capablanca Line win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 49.3%, draws 9.3% and loses 41.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.0%. It rests on 1.8K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Capablanca Line win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 52.4%, draws 7.7% and loses 39.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.3%. It rests on 2.5K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Capablanca Line win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 53.8%, draws 9.6% and loses 36.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.6%. It rests on 797 Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Capablanca Line win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 51.9%, draws 5.5% and loses 42.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.7%. It rests on 2.2K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Capablanca Line win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 50.1%, draws 8.7% and loses 41.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.5%. It rests on 3.5K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Capablanca Line win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 53.2%, draws 11.6% and loses 35.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.1%. It rests on 424 Lichess games.
Is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Capablanca Line a good opening?
The French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Capablanca Line is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 50.9% of its games and loses 41.3%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.