French Defense: Winawer Variation, Kondratiyev Variation
436 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
61.2%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 65.0%.
Measured over 436 games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 4.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 436 games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 436
- Best context
- not measured yet
- Average game length
- 30 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.8%
- Draws
- 4.2%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 50.0% at 1000-1199, 65.9% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | ||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | — | |||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 76.7% expected score (6 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 40.7% expected score (20 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 34.2% expected score (8 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 68.5% expected score (31 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 62.2% expected score (15 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 70.5% expected score (18 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 60.3% expected score (52 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (19 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 61.5% expected score (16 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 58.2% expected score (72 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 36.2% expected score (13 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 56.4% expected score (30 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 70.4% expected score (94 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 71.2% expected score (15 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Kondratiyev Variation scores 61.2% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 57.4% and 65.0% — from 436 Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 436+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Kondratiyev Variation win rate?
Playing the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Kondratiyev Variation, White wins 59.1%, draws 4.2% and loses 36.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 61.2%. It rests on 436 rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Kondratiyev Variation perform best?
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Kondratiyev Variation performs best for White at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 66.4% (130 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Kondratiyev Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Kondratiyev Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 63.0% in Blitz (285 games) against 49.1% in Rapid (55 games).
How sharp is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Kondratiyev Variation?
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Kondratiyev Variation has a sharpness score of 95.8 (very decisive), meaning 95.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Kondratiyev Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 53.2%, draws 5.4% and loses 41.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.9%. It rests on 101 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Kondratiyev Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 63.5%, draws 5.7% and loses 30.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 66.4%. It rests on 130 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Kondratiyev Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 60.6%, draws 4.7% and loses 34.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 63.0%. It rests on 285 Lichess games.
Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Kondratiyev Variation a good opening?
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Kondratiyev Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 59.1% of its games and loses 36.7%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.