French Defense: Exchange Variation, Svenonius Variation
541K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
49.2%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.3%.
Measured over 541K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for White
Draw 4.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 541K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 541K
- Best context
- 62.7% at 2500+ Blitz
- Worst context
- 44.7% at 1400-1599 Classical
- Average game length
- 34 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.7%
- Draws
- 4.3%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 48.8% at 0-999, 62.4% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (3,332 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (4,567 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (1,496 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (12 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (10,679 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (14,367 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.6% expected score (4,326 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 51.0% expected score (51 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 29.0% expected score (39 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (21,775 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (37,323 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (10,300 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 43.0% expected score (211 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 39.6% expected score (70 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (33,044 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (70,649 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (20,179 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 44.7% expected score (695 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 43.4% expected score (104 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (32,971 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (89,304 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (26,917 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 49.4% expected score (1,184 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 48.2% expected score (53 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (25,390 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (60,720 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (20,164 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.1% expected score (748 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 62.8% expected score (26 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (12,669 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (17,917 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (5,193 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (129 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 84.8% expected score (10 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (6,540 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (4,696 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.1% expected score (621 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (10 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (1,669 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 62.7% expected score (534 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (6 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Svenonius Variation scores 49.2% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.1% and 49.3% — from 541K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 541K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Svenonius Variation win rate?
Playing the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Svenonius Variation, White wins 47.0%, draws 4.3% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 541K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Svenonius Variation perform best?
The French Defense: Exchange Variation, Svenonius Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 56.6% (2.2K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Svenonius Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Svenonius Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 49.8% in Blitz (300K games) against 49.9% in Rapid (89K games).
How sharp is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Svenonius Variation?
The French Defense: Exchange Variation, Svenonius Variation has a sharpness score of 95.7 (very decisive), meaning 95.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Svenonius Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 46.4%, draws 3.4% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 9.4K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Svenonius Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 47.9%, draws 3.1% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 29K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Svenonius Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 47.6%, draws 3.3% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 70K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Svenonius Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 47.3%, draws 3.8% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 125K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Svenonius Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 46.6%, draws 4.5% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 150K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Svenonius Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 46.2%, draws 5.2% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 107K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Svenonius Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 46.8%, draws 5.5% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 36K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Svenonius Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 49.3%, draws 5.7% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Svenonius Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 53.4%, draws 6.4% and loses 40.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.6%. It rests on 2.2K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Svenonius Variation win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, White wins 44.0%, draws 1.7% and loses 54.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.9%. It rests on 318 Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Svenonius Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 46.0%, draws 3.0% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 148K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Svenonius Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 47.4%, draws 4.7% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 300K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Svenonius Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 47.3%, draws 5.1% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 89K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Svenonius Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 44.6%, draws 6.0% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 3.0K Lichess games.
Is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Svenonius Variation a good opening?
The French Defense: Exchange Variation, Svenonius Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 47.0% of its games and loses 48.7%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.