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French Defense: Winawer Variation, Portisch-Hook Variation

47K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score50.4%Range (90% confident): 50.0% – 50.7%Based on 47K games
0%50.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 50.0% – 50.7%
Outcome Distribution
47.8%5.2%47.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
6...Qa5
French Defense: Winawer Variation, Portisch-Hook Variation
Analyzen=47K
Avg Length37 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.2%

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Portisch-Hook Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Portisch-Hook Variation has a 50.4% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 50.0% and 50.7%), based on 47K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 9.8% · Rapid best · Classical worst

Black Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 16% → 43%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 15.8% win rate (8 games)
  • 1000-1199: 39.0% win rate (51 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.1% win rate (166 games)
  • 1400-1599: 46.5% win rate (520 games)
  • 1600-1799: 49.7% win rate (1,742 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.5% win rate (6,486 games)
  • 2000-2199: 49.9% win rate (14,887 games)
  • 2200-2499: 46.7% win rate (18,406 games)
  • 2500+: 43.3% win rate (4,425 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (50%), worst in Rapid (42%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 49.5% win rate (12,277 games)
  • Blitz: 47.6% win rate (31,548 games)
  • Rapid: 42.3% win rate (2,688 games)
  • Classical: 47.1% win rate (178 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 13.7% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 62.9% expected score (14 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 37.3% expected score (26 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 23.9% expected score (10 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (50 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (81 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.2% expected score (34 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (188 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (229 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (94 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 26.2% expected score (9 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (472 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (1,011 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 41.7% expected score (238 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (21 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (1,423 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (4,422 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (590 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 54.8% expected score (51 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (2,896 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (10,892 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.9% expected score (1,029 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (70 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (5,006 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (12,737 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (641 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 35.1% expected score (22 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (2,226 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.6% expected score (2,148 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 42.9% expected score (48 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Knight Variation
48.3%
French Defense: Exchange Variation
47.7%
French Defense: Normal Variation
50.3%
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Queen's Knight
48.5%
Analyze French Defense: Winawer Variation, Portisch-Hook Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Portisch-Hook Variation win rate?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Portisch-Hook Variation has a 47.1% (90% CI: 46.7%-47.4%) win rate for white, based on 47K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Portisch-Hook Variation perform best?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Portisch-Hook Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 50.1% win rate for white (4.4K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Portisch-Hook Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (50.7%) outperforms Classical (40.9%) by 9.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Portisch-Hook Variation?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Portisch-Hook Variation has a sharpness score of 94.8 (decisive), meaning 94.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Portisch-Hook Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Portisch-Hook Variation has a 49.9% (90% CI: 43.5%-56.2%) win rate for white, based on 166 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Portisch-Hook Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Portisch-Hook Variation has a 49.4% (90% CI: 45.8%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 520 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Portisch-Hook Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Portisch-Hook Variation has a 46.9% (90% CI: 45.0%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Portisch-Hook Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Portisch-Hook Variation has a 47.2% (90% CI: 46.2%-48.2%) win rate for white, based on 6.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Portisch-Hook Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Portisch-Hook Variation has a 45.4% (90% CI: 44.7%-46.0%) win rate for white, based on 15K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Portisch-Hook Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Portisch-Hook Variation has a 47.5% (90% CI: 46.9%-48.1%) win rate for white, based on 18K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.8% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Portisch-Hook Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Portisch-Hook Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 48.9%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 4.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 6.6% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Portisch-Hook Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Portisch-Hook Variation has a 47.2% (90% CI: 46.5%-47.9%) win rate for white (12K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.3%.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Portisch-Hook Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Portisch-Hook Variation has a 46.7% (90% CI: 46.3%-47.2%) win rate for white (32K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.7%.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Portisch-Hook Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Portisch-Hook Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 49.1%-52.2%) win rate for white (2.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.0%.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Portisch-Hook Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Portisch-Hook Variation has a 40.9% (90% CI: 35.0%-47.0%) win rate for white (178 Lichess games). Draw rate is 12.0%.

Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Portisch-Hook Variation a good opening?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Portisch-Hook Variation is statistically balanced with a 47.1% (90% CI: 46.7%-47.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.