French Defense: Winawer Variation, Portisch-Hook Variation
47K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
50.4%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 50.7%.
Measured over 47K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 5.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 47K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 47K
- Best context
- 52.9% at 1800-1999 Bullet
- Worst context
- 44.6% at 2500+ Blitz
- Average game length
- 37 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 94.8%
- Draws
- 5.2%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 28.4% at 0-999, 46.6% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 13.7% expected score (4 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 62.9% expected score (14 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 37.3% expected score (26 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 23.9% expected score (10 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (50 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (81 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.2% expected score (34 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (188 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (229 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (94 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 26.2% expected score (9 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (472 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (1,011 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 41.7% expected score (238 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (21 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (1,423 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (4,422 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (590 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 54.8% expected score (51 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (2,896 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (10,892 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.9% expected score (1,029 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (70 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (5,006 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (12,737 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (641 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 35.1% expected score (22 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (2,226 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.6% expected score (2,148 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 42.9% expected score (48 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Portisch-Hook Variation scores 50.4% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.0% and 50.7% — from 47K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 47K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Portisch-Hook Variation win rate?
Playing the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Portisch-Hook Variation, Black wins 47.8%, draws 5.2% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 47K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Portisch-Hook Variation perform best?
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Portisch-Hook Variation performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 52.3% (15K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Portisch-Hook Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Portisch-Hook Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 50.5% in Blitz (32K games) against 45.8% in Rapid (2.7K games).
How sharp is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Portisch-Hook Variation?
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Portisch-Hook Variation has a sharpness score of 94.8 (decisive), meaning 94.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Portisch-Hook Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 48.1%, draws 2.1% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 166 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Portisch-Hook Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 46.5%, draws 4.1% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 520 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Portisch-Hook Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 49.7%, draws 3.4% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Portisch-Hook Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 48.5%, draws 4.3% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 6.5K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Portisch-Hook Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 49.9%, draws 4.7% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 15K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Portisch-Hook Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 46.7%, draws 5.8% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 18K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Portisch-Hook Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 43.3%, draws 6.6% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 4.4K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Portisch-Hook Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 49.5%, draws 3.3% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 12K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Portisch-Hook Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 47.6%, draws 5.7% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 32K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Portisch-Hook Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 42.3%, draws 7.0% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.8%. It rests on 2.7K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Portisch-Hook Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 47.1%, draws 12.0% and loses 40.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 178 Lichess games.
Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Portisch-Hook Variation a good opening?
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Portisch-Hook Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 47.8% of its games and loses 47.1%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.