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French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubow Variation

13K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score48.6%Range (90% confident): 47.9% – 49.3%Based on 13K games
0%48.6%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.9% – 49.3%
Outcome Distribution
46.4%4.3%49.3%
Win
Draw
Loss
5...Nc6
French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubow Variation
Analyzen=13K
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.3%

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubow Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubow Variation has a 48.6% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.9% and 49.3%), based on 13K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 48% → 51%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 47.9% win rate (714 games)
  • 1000-1199: 47.3% win rate (1,614 games)
  • 1200-1399: 46.4% win rate (2,530 games)
  • 1400-1599: 45.2% win rate (3,013 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.3% win rate (2,889 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.3% win rate (1,558 games)
  • 2000-2199: 46.5% win rate (486 games)
  • 2200-2499: 43.0% win rate (144 games)
  • 2500+: 50.8% win rate (31 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (49%), worst in UltraBullet (41%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 40.5% win rate (17 games)
  • Bullet: 49.1% win rate (5,761 games)
  • Blitz: 44.6% win rate (5,319 games)
  • Rapid: 43.2% win rate (1,822 games)
  • Classical: 43.1% win rate (60 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (242 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (304 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (167 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (652 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (677 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (282 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (1,101 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 44.4% expected score (1,046 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (370 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (1,255 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (1,276 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 42.6% expected score (450 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (26 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (1,307 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (1,208 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.9% expected score (355 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 37.1% expected score (14 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (773 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (611 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 40.5% expected score (166 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 44.1% expected score (7 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (307 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (149 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.6% expected score (29 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 42.5% expected score (98 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 57.9% expected score (43 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (26 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.7% expected score (5 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Knight Variation
48.3%
French Defense: Exchange Variation
47.7%
French Defense: Normal Variation
50.3%
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Queen's Knight
48.5%
Analyze French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubow Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate?

The French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubow Variation has a 49.3% (90% CI: 48.6%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 13K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubow Variation perform best?

The French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubow Variation performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 51.2% win rate for white (3.0K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubow Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (50.7%) outperforms Classical (48.0%) by 2.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubow Variation?

The French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubow Variation has a sharpness score of 95.7 (very decisive), meaning 95.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubow Variation has a 47.0% (90% CI: 44.0%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 714 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubow Variation has a 48.3% (90% CI: 46.3%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubow Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 48.0%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 2.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubow Variation has a 51.2% (90% CI: 49.7%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 3.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubow Variation has a 48.1% (90% CI: 46.6%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 2.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubow Variation has a 49.7% (90% CI: 47.6%-51.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubow Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 45.2%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 486 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubow Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 41.7%-55.3%) win rate for white, based on 144 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 8.6% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubow Variation has a 47.6% (90% CI: 46.5%-48.6%) win rate for white (5.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.4%.

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubow Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 49.5%-51.8%) win rate for white (5.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubow Variation has a 50.8% (90% CI: 48.8%-52.7%) win rate for white (1.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.0%.

Is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubow Variation a good opening?

The French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubow Variation is statistically balanced with a 49.3% (90% CI: 48.6%-50.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.