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French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubow Variation

13K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

48.6%

40%55%
Floor47.9%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.3%.

Measured over 13K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 13K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
13K
Best context
52.7% at 1200-1399 Bullet
Worst context
44.4% at 1200-1399 Blitz
Average game length
32 moves
Games that end decisively
95.7%
Draws
4.3%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 55.0%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (242 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (304 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (167 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (652 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (677 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (282 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (1,101 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 44.4% expected score (1,046 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (370 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (1,255 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (1,276 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 42.6% expected score (450 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (26 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (1,307 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (1,208 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.9% expected score (355 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 37.1% expected score (14 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (773 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (611 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 40.5% expected score (166 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 44.1% expected score (7 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (307 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (149 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.6% expected score (29 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 42.5% expected score (98 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 57.9% expected score (43 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (26 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.7% expected score (5 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Knight Variation
48.3%
French Defense: Exchange Variation
47.7%
French Defense: Normal Variation
50.3%
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Queen's Knight
48.5%
Analyze French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubow Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubow Variation scores 48.6% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.9% and 49.3% — from 13K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
13K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate?

Playing the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Black wins 46.4%, draws 4.3% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 13K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubow Variation perform best?

The French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubow Variation performs best for Black at 1600-1799, with an Expected Score of 49.6% (2.9K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubow Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubow Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 47.0% in Blitz (5.3K games) against 46.2% in Rapid (1.8K games).

How sharp is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubow Variation?

The French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubow Variation has a sharpness score of 95.7 (very decisive), meaning 95.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 47.9%, draws 5.1% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 714 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 47.3%, draws 4.4% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 46.4%, draws 4.0% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 2.5K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 45.2%, draws 3.6% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 3.0K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 47.3%, draws 4.5% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 2.9K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 45.3%, draws 5.0% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 46.5%, draws 4.6% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 486 Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 43.0%, draws 8.6% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 144 Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 49.1%, draws 3.4% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 5.8K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 44.6%, draws 4.7% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 5.3K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 43.2%, draws 6.0% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.2%. It rests on 1.8K Lichess games.

Is the French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubow Variation a good opening?

The French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubow Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.4% of its games and loses 49.3%. It performs best at 1600-1799. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.