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French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Guimard Defense, Thunderbunny Variation

520 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score46.4%Range (90% confident): 42.8% – 50.0%Based on 520 games
0%46.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 42.8% – 50.0%
Outcome Distribution
44.6%3.5%51.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
5...e5
French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Guimard Defense, Thunderbunny Variation
Analyzen=520
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.5%

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Guimard Defense, Thunderbunny Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Guimard Defense, Thunderbunny Variation has a 46.4% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 42.8% and 50.0%), based on 520 Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 92.4 · Trap factor: +13.1 · n=520

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 40% → 31%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 39.5% win rate (91 games)
  • 1000-1199: 44.2% win rate (72 games)
  • 1200-1399: 55.8% win rate (55 games)
  • 1400-1599: 44.2% win rate (63 games)
  • 1600-1799: 42.3% win rate (80 games)
  • 1800-1999: 43.1% win rate (67 games)
  • 2000-2199: 54.8% win rate (56 games)
  • 2200-2499: 30.2% win rate (20 games)
  • 2500+: 31.4% win rate (16 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (47%), worst in Rapid (39%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 45.8% win rate (135 games)
  • Blitz: 47.2% win rate (237 games)
  • Rapid: 38.5% win rate (140 games)
  • Classical: 47.4% win rate (8 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599——
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199——
2200-2499——
2500+————

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 64.9% expected score (12 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (41 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 31.1% expected score (38 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (31 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (27 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 32.6% expected score (10 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 66.4% expected score (23 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.7% expected score (20 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (14 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 39.9% expected score (28 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (21 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 41.8% expected score (29 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 43.0% expected score (34 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (16 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 44.9% expected score (18 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (36 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 31.5% expected score (12 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 64.7% expected score (19 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 59.0% expected score (32 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 27.8% expected score (12 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 35.7% expected score (16 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Knight Variation
48.3%
French Defense: Exchange Variation
47.7%
French Defense: Normal Variation
50.3%
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Queen's Knight
48.5%
Analyze French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Guimard Defense, Thunderbunny Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Guimard Defense, Thunderbunny Variation win rate?

The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Guimard Defense, Thunderbunny Variation has a 51.9% (90% CI: 48.3%-55.5%) win rate for white, based on 520 rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Guimard Defense, Thunderbunny Variation perform best?

The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Guimard Defense, Thunderbunny Variation performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 55.8% win rate for white (80 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Guimard Defense, Thunderbunny Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (55.5%) outperforms Blitz (49.7%) by 5.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Guimard Defense, Thunderbunny Variation?

The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Guimard Defense, Thunderbunny Variation has a sharpness score of 96.5 (very decisive), meaning 96.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Guimard Defense, Thunderbunny Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Guimard Defense, Thunderbunny Variation has a 52.4% (90% CI: 45.4%-59.4%) win rate for white (135 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.8%.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Guimard Defense, Thunderbunny Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Guimard Defense, Thunderbunny Variation has a 49.7% (90% CI: 44.4%-55.0%) win rate for white (237 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Guimard Defense, Thunderbunny Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Guimard Defense, Thunderbunny Variation has a 55.5% (90% CI: 48.6%-62.3%) win rate for white (140 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.0%.

Is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Guimard Defense, Thunderbunny Variation a good opening?

The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Guimard Defense, Thunderbunny Variation is statistically balanced with a 51.9% (90% CI: 48.3%-55.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.