43K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Modern System has a 48.3% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.9% and 48.7%), based on 43K Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 52% → 41%
Best in Bullet (48%), worst in UltraBullet (33%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Modern System has a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.3%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 43K rated games from Lichess.
The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Modern System performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 52.0% win rate for white (4.6K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Rapid (51.6%) outperforms Bullet (47.6%) by 4.0%. Choose your time control wisely.
The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Modern System has a sharpness score of 94.0 (decisive), meaning 94.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Modern System has a 52.7% (90% CI: 47.7%-57.8%) win rate for white, based on 263 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 1.3% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Modern System has a 53.0% (90% CI: 50.1%-55.9%) win rate for white, based on 798 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 1.8% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Modern System has a 48.4% (90% CI: 46.6%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 2.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Modern System has a 52.0% (90% CI: 50.8%-53.2%) win rate for white, based on 4.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Modern System has a 50.4% (90% CI: 49.4%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 7.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Modern System has a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.1%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 10K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Modern System has a 46.1% (90% CI: 45.4%-46.8%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 8.0% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Modern System has a 49.4% (90% CI: 48.0%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 3.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 9.3% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Modern System has a 47.6% (90% CI: 46.6%-48.5%) win rate for white (7.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.
In Blitz games, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Modern System has a 48.5% (90% CI: 48.0%-49.0%) win rate for white (30K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.4%.
In Rapid games, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Modern System has a 51.6% (90% CI: 50.4%-52.7%) win rate for white (4.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.2%.
In Classical games, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Modern System has a 52.3% (90% CI: 47.5%-57.1%) win rate for white (288 Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.8%.
The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Modern System is statistically balanced with a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.3%-49.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.