French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation

75K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

4...dxe4

Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

47.1%

40%55%

Floor46.8%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 47.4%.

Measured over 75K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

44.2%5.8%50.0%

Win

Draw

Loss

Draw 5.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 75K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here: not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context: 75K
Best context: 52.2% at 1400-1599 Rapid
Worst context: 43.5% at 2500+ Bullet
Average game length: 35 moves
Games that end decisively: 94.2%
Draws: 5.8%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 11.6% · Bullet best · Classical worst

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 51.1% at 0-999, 44.9% at 2500+.

Rating	UB	Class
0-999	—	—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+	—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (224 games)
0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (411 games)
0-999 rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (136 games)
1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (640 games)
1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (910 games)
1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (295 games)
1000-1199 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 44.7% expected score (1,253 games)
1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (1,922 games)
1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.6% expected score (555 games)
1200-1399 rating, Classical: 82.0% expected score (11 games)
1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 27.2% expected score (16 games)
1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (2,123 games)
1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (3,701 games)
1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (971 games)
1400-1599 rating, Classical: 59.6% expected score (51 games)
1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 52.5% expected score (19 games)
1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (3,450 games)
1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (5,637 games)
1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.5% expected score (1,420 games)
1600-1799 rating, Classical: 56.3% expected score (79 games)
1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.1% expected score (18 games)
1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (4,542 games)
1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (8,124 games)
1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (1,720 games)
1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.0% expected score (103 games)
2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 23.7% expected score (8 games)
2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (5,174 games)
2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (9,776 games)
2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (1,568 games)
2000-2199 rating, Classical: 52.6% expected score (56 games)
2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 23.4% expected score (6 games)
2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.1% expected score (7,189 games)
2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (6,600 games)
2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.5% expected score (700 games)
2200-2499 rating, Classical: 36.7% expected score (21 games)
2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.5% expected score (4,043 games)
2500+ rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (1,164 games)
2500+ rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (48 games)
2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (8 games)

Related Openings

Parent

French Defense

45.7%

Variations (5)

French Defense: Knight Variation

48.3%

French Defense: Exchange Variation

47.7%

French Defense: Normal Variation

50.3%

French Defense: Advance Variation

48.0%

French Defense: Queen's Knight

48.5%

Continuations (2)

French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Main Line

54.8%

French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Morozevich Line

48.6%

Analyze French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation scores 47.1% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 46.8% and 47.4% — from 75K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made

Whose games these are: 75K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count: Rated games only — nothing casual.
Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
At least 2 moves played.
A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range: A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything: An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation win rate?

Playing the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Black wins 44.2%, draws 5.8% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 75K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation perform best?

The French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation performs best for Black at 1600-1799, with an Expected Score of 48.8% (11K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 47.4% in Blitz (38K games) against 49.5% in Rapid (7.4K games).

How sharp is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation?

The French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation has a sharpness score of 94.2 (decisive), meaning 94.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 48.6%, draws 2.9% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 771 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 45.8%, draws 2.7% and loses 51.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 1.8K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 46.5%, draws 3.1% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 3.7K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 46.6%, draws 3.8% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 6.9K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 46.5%, draws 4.6% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 45.6%, draws 5.0% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 15K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 43.2%, draws 6.3% and loses 50.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.4%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 42.1%, draws 7.1% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.6%. It rests on 15K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 38.6%, draws 11.4% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.3%. It rests on 5.3K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 43.8%, draws 4.6% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.1%. It rests on 29K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 44.2%, draws 6.3% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 38K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 45.7%, draws 7.5% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 7.4K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 47.8%, draws 12.1% and loses 40.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 332 Lichess games.

Is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation a good opening?

The French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 44.2% of its games and loses 50.0%. It performs best at 1600-1799. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.