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French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation

75K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score47.1%Range (90% confident): 46.8% – 47.4%Based on 75K games
0%47.1%100%
Range (90% confident): 46.8% – 47.4%
Outcome Distribution
44.2%5.8%50.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...dxe4
French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation
Analyzen=75K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate5.8%

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation has a 47.1% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 46.8% and 47.4%), based on 75K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 11.6% · Bullet best · Classical worst

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 49% → 39%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 48.6% win rate (771 games)
  • 1000-1199: 45.8% win rate (1,849 games)
  • 1200-1399: 46.5% win rate (3,745 games)
  • 1400-1599: 46.6% win rate (6,862 games)
  • 1600-1799: 46.5% win rate (10,605 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.6% win rate (14,507 games)
  • 2000-2199: 43.2% win rate (16,582 games)
  • 2200-2499: 42.1% win rate (14,516 games)
  • 2500+: 38.6% win rate (5,263 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (48%), worst in UltraBullet (39%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 38.8% win rate (72 games)
  • Bullet: 43.8% win rate (28,638 games)
  • Blitz: 44.2% win rate (38,245 games)
  • Rapid: 45.7% win rate (7,413 games)
  • Classical: 47.8% win rate (332 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (224 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (411 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (136 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (640 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (910 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (295 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 44.7% expected score (1,253 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (1,922 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.6% expected score (555 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 82.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 27.2% expected score (16 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (2,123 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (3,701 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (971 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 59.6% expected score (51 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 52.5% expected score (19 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (3,450 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (5,637 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.5% expected score (1,420 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 56.3% expected score (79 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.1% expected score (18 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (4,542 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (8,124 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (1,720 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.0% expected score (103 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 23.7% expected score (8 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (5,174 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (9,776 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (1,568 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 52.6% expected score (56 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 23.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.1% expected score (7,189 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (6,600 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.5% expected score (700 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 36.7% expected score (21 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.5% expected score (4,043 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (1,164 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (48 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (8 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Knight Variation
48.3%
French Defense: Exchange Variation
47.7%
French Defense: Normal Variation
50.3%
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Queen's Knight
48.5%
Continuations (2)
French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Main Line
54.8%
French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation, Morozevich Line
48.6%
Analyze French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation win rate?

The French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.7%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 75K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation perform best?

The French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 50.9% win rate for white (15K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (51.6%) outperforms Classical (40.0%) by 11.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation?

The French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation has a sharpness score of 94.2 (decisive), meaning 94.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 45.5%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 771 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation has a 51.5% (90% CI: 49.6%-53.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 49.1%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 3.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 48.6%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 6.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation has a 49.0% (90% CI: 48.2%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation has a 49.4% (90% CI: 48.7%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 15K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation has a 50.5% (90% CI: 49.8%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 17K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 6.3% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.2%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 15K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 7.1% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 48.9%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 5.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 11.4% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation has a 51.6% (90% CI: 51.2%-52.1%) win rate for white (29K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 49.1%-49.9%) win rate for white (38K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.3%.

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation has a 46.8% (90% CI: 45.9%-47.8%) win rate for white (7.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.5%.

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation has a 40.0% (90% CI: 35.7%-44.5%) win rate for white (332 Lichess games). Draw rate is 12.1%.

Is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation a good opening?

The French Defense: Classical Variation, Burn Variation is statistically favors white with a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.7%-50.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.