French Defense: Classical Variation, Frankfurt Variation
147 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
50.0%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 56.8%.
Measured over 147 games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 7.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 147 games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 147
- Best context
- not measured yet
- Average game length
- 39 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 92.3%
- Draws
- 7.7%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 30.0%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | — | — | ||
| 1800-1999 | — | — | |||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | — | ||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 55.3% expected score (8 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (27 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (35 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 20.6% expected score (7 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 59.0% expected score (32 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Classical Variation, Frankfurt Variation scores 50.0% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 43.3% and 56.8% — from 147 Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 147+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Frankfurt Variation win rate?
Playing the French Defense: Classical Variation, Frankfurt Variation, Black wins 46.1%, draws 7.7% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 147 rated games from Lichess.
How sharp is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Frankfurt Variation?
The French Defense: Classical Variation, Frankfurt Variation has a sharpness score of 92.3 (decisive), meaning 92.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 39 moves.
What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Frankfurt Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 46.8%, draws 9.0% and loses 44.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 115 Lichess games.
Is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Frankfurt Variation a good opening?
The French Defense: Classical Variation, Frankfurt Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.1% of its games and loses 46.1%. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.