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French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Main Line

100K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score53.2%Range (90% confident): 52.9% – 53.4%Based on 100K games
0%53.2%100%
Range (90% confident): 52.9% – 53.4%
Outcome Distribution
51.4%3.5%45.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
8.O-O
French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Main Line
Analyzen=100K
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.5%

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Main Line expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Main Line has a 53.2% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.9% and 53.4%), based on 100K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +9.0% · Breakpoint: 0-999

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 43% → 52%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 43.2% win rate (231 games)
  • 1000-1199: 44.3% win rate (1,125 games)
  • 1200-1399: 47.6% win rate (3,464 games)
  • 1400-1599: 50.5% win rate (7,545 games)
  • 1600-1799: 51.7% win rate (17,365 games)
  • 1800-1999: 52.1% win rate (29,285 games)
  • 2000-2199: 51.1% win rate (26,108 games)
  • 2200-2499: 51.9% win rate (12,361 games)
  • 2500+: 52.4% win rate (2,587 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (53%), worst in UltraBullet (47%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 47.4% win rate (8 games)
  • Bullet: 52.6% win rate (30,188 games)
  • Blitz: 51.0% win rate (56,011 games)
  • Rapid: 50.4% win rate (13,117 games)
  • Classical: 50.7% win rate (747 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 44.7% expected score (112 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.4% expected score (106 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 32.8% expected score (13 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (463 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 43.0% expected score (520 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 44.8% expected score (141 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (1,273 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (1,625 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (558 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (7 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (2,226 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (4,036 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (1,214 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 51.5% expected score (66 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (4,085 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (10,196 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (2,845 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 55.2% expected score (239 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (6,483 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (17,910 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (4,567 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 55.9% expected score (323 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (7,117 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (15,818 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (3,069 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 43.3% expected score (103 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (6,307 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (5,364 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.9% expected score (681 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.8% expected score (2,122 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (436 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 36.9% expected score (29 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Euwe Variation
46.1%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Extended Bishop Swap
48.6%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit
46.5%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Lputian Variation
48.8%
Analyze French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Main Line PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Main Line win rate?

The French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Main Line has a 51.4% (90% CI: 51.1%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 100K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Main Line perform best?

The French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Main Line performs best at 1800-1999 Elo with a 52.1% win rate for white (29K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Main Line better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (52.6%) outperforms Classical (50.7%) by 1.9%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Main Line?

The French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Main Line has a sharpness score of 96.5 (very decisive), meaning 96.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Main Line win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Main Line has a 43.2% (90% CI: 37.9%-48.6%) win rate for white, based on 231 Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 1.9% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Main Line win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Main Line has a 44.3% (90% CI: 41.9%-46.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Main Line win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Main Line has a 47.6% (90% CI: 46.2%-49.0%) win rate for white, based on 3.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Main Line win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Main Line has a 50.5% (90% CI: 49.5%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 7.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Main Line win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Main Line has a 51.7% (90% CI: 51.0%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 17K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Main Line win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Main Line has a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.7%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 29K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Main Line win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Main Line has a 51.1% (90% CI: 50.6%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 26K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Main Line win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Main Line has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.1%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Main Line win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Main Line has a 52.4% (90% CI: 50.8%-54.0%) win rate for white, based on 2.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 7.4% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Main Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Main Line has a 52.6% (90% CI: 52.1%-53.1%) win rate for white (30K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.3%.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Main Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Main Line has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.6%-51.3%) win rate for white (56K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Main Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Main Line has a 50.4% (90% CI: 49.6%-51.1%) win rate for white (13K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Main Line win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Main Line has a 50.7% (90% CI: 47.7%-53.7%) win rate for white (747 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.5%.

Is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Main Line a good opening?

The French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Main Line is statistically favors white with a 51.4% (90% CI: 51.1%-51.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1800-1999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.