2.0K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Sørensen Variation has a 57.6% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 55.8% and 59.4%), based on 2.0K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Improves with rating: 47% → 52%
Best in Bullet (60%), worst in Classical (23%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Sørensen Variation has a 56.1% (90% CI: 54.3%-58.0%) win rate for white, based on 2.0K rated games from Lichess.
The French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Sørensen Variation performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 58.0% win rate for white (586 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (59.6%) outperforms Rapid (51.9%) by 7.7%. Choose your time control wisely.
The French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Sørensen Variation has a sharpness score of 97.1 (very decisive), meaning 97.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Sørensen Variation has a 58.7% (90% CI: 53.0%-64.3%) win rate for white, based on 202 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Sørensen Variation has a 57.3% (90% CI: 54.4%-60.3%) win rate for white, based on 751 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Sørensen Variation has a 58.0% (90% CI: 54.6%-61.3%) win rate for white, based on 586 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Sørensen Variation has a 51.4% (90% CI: 45.5%-57.3%) win rate for white, based on 194 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Sørensen Variation has a 52.4% (90% CI: 45.8%-58.9%) win rate for white, based on 156 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Sørensen Variation has a 59.6% (90% CI: 56.3%-62.9%) win rate for white (600 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.9%.
In Blitz games, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Sørensen Variation has a 55.0% (90% CI: 52.7%-57.3%) win rate for white (1.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.5%.
In Rapid games, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Sørensen Variation has a 51.9% (90% CI: 45.1%-58.7%) win rate for white (142 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.4%.
The French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Sørensen Variation is statistically favors white with a 56.1% (90% CI: 54.3%-58.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.