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French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack

3.3M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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5.Nf3
Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

48.5%

45%55%
Floor48.5%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 3.3M games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 3.3M games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
3.3M
Best context
55.8% at 2500+ Blitz
Worst context
42.9% at 1200-1399 Classical
Average game length
34 moves
Games that end decisively
96.2%
Draws
3.8%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 11.3% · UltraBullet best · Classical worst

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 52.7% at 0-999, 61.5% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 60.2% expected score (23 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 43.5% expected score (17,451 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (21,113 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (3,475 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (16 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 40.4% expected score (45 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (55,754 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (88,849 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.7% expected score (20,811 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 48.5% expected score (131 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 44.4% expected score (167 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (101,786 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (209,567 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (60,853 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 42.9% expected score (1,013 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 53.6% expected score (438 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (145,251 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (348,567 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (122,363 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 44.6% expected score (4,542 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 60.0% expected score (462 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (167,752 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (418,939 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (156,231 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 45.3% expected score (8,285 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 58.7% expected score (325 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (170,744 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (403,058 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (128,005 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.9% expected score (6,239 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 54.2% expected score (326 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (134,893 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (238,492 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.5% expected score (52,568 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 52.3% expected score (1,608 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 53.8% expected score (168 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (98,859 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (90,967 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.1% expected score (11,508 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 56.8% expected score (153 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 65.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.6% expected score (28,670 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.8% expected score (9,730 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 63.2% expected score (391 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 67.4% expected score (10 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Knight Variation
48.3%
French Defense: Exchange Variation
47.7%
French Defense: Normal Variation
50.3%
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Queen's Knight
48.5%
Analyze French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack scores 48.5% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.5% and 48.6% — from 3.3M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
3.3M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack win rate?

Playing the French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack, White wins 46.6%, draws 3.8% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 3.3M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack perform best?

The French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 55.7% (39K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 48.3% in Blitz (1.8M games) against 47.5% in Rapid (556K games).

How sharp is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack?

The French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 44.6%, draws 2.4% and loses 53.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.8%. It rests on 42K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 45.7%, draws 2.7% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 166K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 45.5%, draws 3.1% and loses 51.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 373K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 45.1%, draws 3.4% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 621K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 45.6%, draws 3.8% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 752K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 46.9%, draws 4.2% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 708K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 48.8%, draws 4.4% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 428K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 50.9%, draws 5.0% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 202K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 52.7%, draws 5.9% and loses 41.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.7%. It rests on 39K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 54.5%, draws 1.2% and loses 44.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.1%. It rests on 2.0K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 48.2%, draws 2.6% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 921K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 46.2%, draws 4.2% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 1.8M Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 45.1%, draws 4.8% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 556K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 43.2%, draws 6.4% and loses 50.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.4%. It rests on 22K Lichess games.

Is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack a good opening?

The French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 46.6% of its games and loses 49.6%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.