French Defense: Steinitz Attack
2.4M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
50.0%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.
Measured over 2.4M games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for White
Draw 3.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 2.4M games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 2.4M
- Best context
- 58.4% at 2200-2499 UltraBullet
- Worst context
- 42.5% at 1000-1199 UltraBullet
- Average game length
- 34 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.3%
- Draws
- 3.7%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 44.6% at 0-999, 59.8% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.9% expected score (213 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (30,168 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (108,317 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (39,178 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 43.6% expected score (293 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 42.5% expected score (643 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (50,205 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (184,637 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.6% expected score (76,990 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 49.3% expected score (1,347 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 45.1% expected score (7,065 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (79,980 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (237,931 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (108,242 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.4% expected score (4,672 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 49.5% expected score (11,898 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (107,778 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (234,368 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (105,655 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 47.9% expected score (8,473 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.3% expected score (21,524 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (133,674 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (173,622 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.6% expected score (71,203 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 48.4% expected score (4,911 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 53.4% expected score (25,192 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (158,786 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (99,069 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (28,004 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.8% expected score (1,206 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 56.5% expected score (10,396 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (133,826 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (39,171 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (6,631 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 51.9% expected score (77 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 58.4% expected score (3,312 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (78,586 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (6,432 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (639 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 65.4% expected score (158 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (8,823 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 58.0% expected score (281 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 61.8% expected score (7 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Steinitz Attack scores 50.0% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.0% and 50.1% — from 2.4M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 2.4M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the French Defense: Steinitz Attack win rate?
Playing the French Defense: Steinitz Attack, White wins 48.1%, draws 3.7% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 2.4M rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the French Defense: Steinitz Attack perform best?
The French Defense: Steinitz Attack performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 54.2% (9.3K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the French Defense: Steinitz Attack better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the French Defense: Steinitz Attack scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 49.9% in Blitz (1.1M games) against 49.9% in Rapid (437K games).
How sharp is the French Defense: Steinitz Attack?
The French Defense: Steinitz Attack has a sharpness score of 96.3 (very decisive), meaning 96.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
What is the French Defense: Steinitz Attack win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 48.1%, draws 3.8% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 178K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the French Defense: Steinitz Attack win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 48.8%, draws 3.5% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 314K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the French Defense: Steinitz Attack win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 48.0%, draws 3.4% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 438K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the French Defense: Steinitz Attack win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 47.4%, draws 3.5% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 468K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the French Defense: Steinitz Attack win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 47.6%, draws 3.6% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 405K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the French Defense: Steinitz Attack win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 48.2%, draws 4.0% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 312K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the French Defense: Steinitz Attack win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 48.9%, draws 4.3% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 190K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the French Defense: Steinitz Attack win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 49.6%, draws 4.8% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 89K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the French Defense: Steinitz Attack win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 51.1%, draws 6.1% and loses 42.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.2%. It rests on 9.3K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.
What is the French Defense: Steinitz Attack win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, White wins 50.7%, draws 2.0% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 80K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Steinitz Attack win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 48.6%, draws 2.9% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 782K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Steinitz Attack win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 47.8%, draws 4.1% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 1.1M Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Steinitz Attack win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 47.6%, draws 4.6% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 437K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Steinitz Attack win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 46.4%, draws 4.7% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 21K Lichess games.
Is the French Defense: Steinitz Attack a good opening?
The French Defense: Steinitz Attack is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 48.1% of its games and loses 48.2%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.