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French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line

14K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Black Expected Score53.1%Range (90% confident): 52.4% – 53.8%Based on 14K games
0%53.1%100%
Range (90% confident): 52.4% – 53.8%
Outcome Distribution
50.1%5.9%44.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
6...cxd4
French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line
Analyzen=14K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate5.9%

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line has a 53.1% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 52.4% and 53.8%), based on 14K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 56% → 43%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 55.6% win rate (3 games)
  • 1000-1199: 39.1% win rate (10 games)
  • 1200-1399: 47.8% win rate (10 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.2% win rate (30 games)
  • 1600-1799: 57.3% win rate (214 games)
  • 1800-1999: 54.1% win rate (1,223 games)
  • 2000-2199: 53.5% win rate (4,212 games)
  • 2200-2499: 49.0% win rate (6,575 games)
  • 2500+: 43.0% win rate (1,854 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (51%), worst in Classical (35%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 50.7% win rate (3,773 games)
  • Blitz: 50.3% win rate (9,646 games)
  • Rapid: 46.3% win rate (652 games)
  • Classical: 35.0% win rate (60 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999———
1000-1199——
1200-1399————
1400-1599——
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (10 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (12 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 65.1% expected score (68 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 56.9% expected score (115 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (27 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (298 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 57.8% expected score (814 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (97 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 40.4% expected score (14 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 56.4% expected score (686 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 56.1% expected score (3,254 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (240 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 42.5% expected score (32 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (1,551 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (4,773 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.1% expected score (241 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 45.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (1,164 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (662 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 26.3% expected score (28 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Knight Variation
48.3%
French Defense: Exchange Variation
47.7%
French Defense: Normal Variation
50.3%
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Queen's Knight
48.5%
Analyze French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line win rate?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line has a 44.0% (90% CI: 43.3%-44.6%) win rate for white, based on 14K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line perform best?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 49.3% win rate for white (1.9K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (44.7%) outperforms Classical (49.6%) by -4.9%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line has a sharpness score of 94.1 (decisive), meaning 94.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line has a 39.7% (90% CI: 34.3%-45.2%) win rate for white, based on 214 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line has a 40.5% (90% CI: 38.2%-42.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line has a 41.6% (90% CI: 40.4%-42.9%) win rate for white, based on 4.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line has a 44.7% (90% CI: 43.7%-45.7%) win rate for white, based on 6.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.3% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line has a 49.3% (90% CI: 47.4%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 7.7% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line has a 44.7% (90% CI: 43.4%-46.0%) win rate for white (3.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line has a 43.6% (90% CI: 42.7%-44.4%) win rate for white (9.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.2%.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line has a 44.8% (90% CI: 41.6%-48.0%) win rate for white (652 Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.0%.

Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line a good opening?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line is slightly favors black with a 44.0% (90% CI: 43.3%-44.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.