French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line
14K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
53.1%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 53.8%.
Measured over 14K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 5.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 14K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 14K
- Best context
- 57.8% at 1800-1999 Blitz
- Worst context
- 45.6% at 2500+ Blitz
- Average game length
- 36 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 94.1%
- Draws
- 5.9%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 67.2% at 0-999, 40.0% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | ||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (5 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (10 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (15 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (12 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 65.1% expected score (68 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 56.9% expected score (115 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (27 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (298 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 57.8% expected score (814 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (97 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 40.4% expected score (14 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 56.4% expected score (686 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 56.1% expected score (3,254 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (240 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 42.5% expected score (32 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (1,551 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (4,773 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.1% expected score (241 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 45.7% expected score (10 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (1,164 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (662 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 26.3% expected score (28 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line scores 53.1% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 52.4% and 53.8% — from 14K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 14K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games before we will say where it stops working. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line win rate?
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line scores 53.1% (range, 90% confident: 52.4% – 53.8%) for Black, based on 14K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line perform best?
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line performs best at 2000-2199, where it scores 56.0% for Black (4.2K games). It tends to score less at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, Blitz (53.4%) outperforms Classical (42.7%). Choose your time control wisely.
How sharp is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line?
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line has a sharpness score of 94.1 (decisive), meaning 94.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line scores 58.8% (range, 90% confident: 53.3% – 64.3%) for Black, based on 214 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line scores 56.8% (range, 90% confident: 54.5% – 59.1%) for Black, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line scores 56.0% (range, 90% confident: 54.7% – 57.2%) for Black, based on 4.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line scores 52.2% (range, 90% confident: 51.2% – 53.2%) for Black, based on 6.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.3% draw rate.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line scores 46.9% (range, 90% confident: 45.0% – 48.8%) for Black, based on 1.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 7.7% draw rate.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line scores 53.0% (range, 90% confident: 51.7% – 54.3%) for Black (3.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line scores 53.4% (range, 90% confident: 52.5% – 54.2%) for Black (9.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.2%.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line scores 50.8% (range, 90% confident: 47.6% – 54.0%) for Black (652 Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.0%.
Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line a good opening?
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line is good for Black with a 44.0% (range, 90% confident: 43.3% – 44.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.