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French Defense: Horwitz Attack, Papa-Ticulat Gambit

422K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

53.1%

45%60%
Floor53.0%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 53.2%.

Measured over 422K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 422K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
422K
Best context
58.0% at 2500+ Blitz
Worst context
46.4% at 0-999 Bullet
Average game length
33 moves
Games that end decisively
96.1%
Draws
3.9%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +14.1% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 45.5% at 0-999, 61.2% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (778 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (997 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (334 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 37.9% expected score (15 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (2,897 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (2,791 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (739 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 53.4% expected score (72 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (7,743 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (6,908 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.9% expected score (1,354 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 70.7% expected score (30 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 49.5% expected score (183 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (15,633 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (17,303 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.2% expected score (3,307 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 52.5% expected score (140 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 51.0% expected score (198 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (25,143 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (35,293 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.7% expected score (7,657 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.4% expected score (510 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 63.2% expected score (128 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (33,210 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (54,565 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (11,310 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.5% expected score (762 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 64.6% expected score (26 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (39,691 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (54,465 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (9,040 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 53.5% expected score (422 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 61.5% expected score (29 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (40,154 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.1% expected score (30,238 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.8% expected score (2,630 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 56.9% expected score (57 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 57.6% expected score (12,232 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 58.0% expected score (3,071 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 59.3% expected score (101 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Knight Variation
48.3%
French Defense: Exchange Variation
47.7%
French Defense: Normal Variation
50.3%
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Queen's Knight
48.5%
Analyze French Defense: Horwitz Attack, Papa-Ticulat Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Horwitz Attack, Papa-Ticulat Gambit scores 53.1% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.0% and 53.2% — from 422K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
422K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Horwitz Attack, Papa-Ticulat Gambit win rate?

Playing the French Defense: Horwitz Attack, Papa-Ticulat Gambit, White wins 51.1%, draws 3.9% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 422K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Horwitz Attack, Papa-Ticulat Gambit perform best?

The French Defense: Horwitz Attack, Papa-Ticulat Gambit performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 57.7% (15K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the French Defense: Horwitz Attack, Papa-Ticulat Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the French Defense: Horwitz Attack, Papa-Ticulat Gambit scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 53.0% in Blitz (206K games) against 52.5% in Rapid (36K games).

How sharp is the French Defense: Horwitz Attack, Papa-Ticulat Gambit?

The French Defense: Horwitz Attack, Papa-Ticulat Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.1 (very decisive), meaning 96.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the French Defense: Horwitz Attack, Papa-Ticulat Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 48.0%, draws 2.2% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 2.1K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the French Defense: Horwitz Attack, Papa-Ticulat Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 49.8%, draws 2.0% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 6.5K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the French Defense: Horwitz Attack, Papa-Ticulat Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 50.2%, draws 2.1% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 16K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the French Defense: Horwitz Attack, Papa-Ticulat Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 50.8%, draws 2.4% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.1%. It rests on 37K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the French Defense: Horwitz Attack, Papa-Ticulat Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 50.6%, draws 3.1% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 69K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the French Defense: Horwitz Attack, Papa-Ticulat Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 50.4%, draws 3.8% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 100K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the French Defense: Horwitz Attack, Papa-Ticulat Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 51.2%, draws 4.3% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 104K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the French Defense: Horwitz Attack, Papa-Ticulat Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 52.4%, draws 5.0% and loses 42.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.9%. It rests on 73K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the French Defense: Horwitz Attack, Papa-Ticulat Gambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 54.5%, draws 6.4% and loses 39.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.7%. It rests on 15K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the French Defense: Horwitz Attack, Papa-Ticulat Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 52.9%, draws 2.4% and loses 44.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.1%. It rests on 656 Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Horwitz Attack, Papa-Ticulat Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 51.7%, draws 3.0% and loses 45.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 177K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Horwitz Attack, Papa-Ticulat Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 50.8%, draws 4.4% and loses 44.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 206K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Horwitz Attack, Papa-Ticulat Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 50.0%, draws 4.9% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 36K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Horwitz Attack, Papa-Ticulat Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 49.0%, draws 6.7% and loses 44.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games.

Is the French Defense: Horwitz Attack, Papa-Ticulat Gambit a good opening?

The French Defense: Horwitz Attack, Papa-Ticulat Gambit is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 51.1% of its games and loses 45.0%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.