French Defense: Alapin Gambit
176K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
53.9%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 54.1%.
Measured over 176K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 3.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 176K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 176K
- Best context
- 56.2% at 1600-1799 UltraBullet
- Worst context
- 49.4% at 0-999 Bullet
- Average game length
- 31 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.8%
- Draws
- 3.2%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 48.8% at 0-999, 60.0% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 43.6% expected score (14 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (684 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (903 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 43.9% expected score (349 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 48.3% expected score (28 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (1,548 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (1,837 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (475 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (10 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 60.2% expected score (38 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (4,600 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.6% expected score (4,341 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (1,071 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (22 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 56.6% expected score (82 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (7,350 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (11,155 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (2,922 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 47.0% expected score (83 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 56.2% expected score (1,546 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (12,000 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (18,114 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.2% expected score (5,280 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 55.3% expected score (121 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 48.7% expected score (72 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (14,499 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (28,832 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (7,057 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 56.8% expected score (228 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (12,468 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (19,925 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.7% expected score (4,027 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 56.3% expected score (127 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (7,862 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (4,892 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 57.4% expected score (492 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (1,197 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 64.0% expected score (227 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Alapin Gambit scores 53.9% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.7% and 54.1% — from 176K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 176K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the French Defense: Alapin Gambit win rate?
Playing the French Defense: Alapin Gambit, White wins 52.3%, draws 3.2% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 176K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the French Defense: Alapin Gambit perform best?
The French Defense: Alapin Gambit performs best for White at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 54.5% (37K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the French Defense: Alapin Gambit better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the French Defense: Alapin Gambit scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 53.7% in Blitz (90K games) against 53.5% in Rapid (22K games).
How sharp is the French Defense: Alapin Gambit?
The French Defense: Alapin Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.8 (very decisive), meaning 96.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.
What is the French Defense: Alapin Gambit win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 46.7%, draws 3.2% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 2.0K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the French Defense: Alapin Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 51.1%, draws 2.4% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 3.9K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the French Defense: Alapin Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 52.5%, draws 2.1% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.6%. It rests on 10K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the French Defense: Alapin Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 52.1%, draws 2.3% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 22K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the French Defense: Alapin Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 52.8%, draws 2.6% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.1%. It rests on 37K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the French Defense: Alapin Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 52.3%, draws 3.3% and loses 44.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.0%. It rests on 51K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the French Defense: Alapin Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 52.5%, draws 3.9% and loses 43.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.5%. It rests on 37K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the French Defense: Alapin Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 51.9%, draws 4.6% and loses 43.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.2%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the French Defense: Alapin Gambit win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 51.4%, draws 6.2% and loses 42.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.5%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the French Defense: Alapin Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, White wins 54.9%, draws 1.6% and loses 43.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.7%. It rests on 1.8K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Alapin Gambit win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 53.2%, draws 2.3% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.4%. It rests on 62K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Alapin Gambit win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 51.8%, draws 3.7% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 90K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Alapin Gambit win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 51.5%, draws 4.0% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.5%. It rests on 22K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Alapin Gambit win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 52.6%, draws 4.4% and loses 43.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.8%. It rests on 604 Lichess games.
Is the French Defense: Alapin Gambit a good opening?
The French Defense: Alapin Gambit is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 52.3% of its games and loses 44.5%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.