French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation
35K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
49.1%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.6%.
Measured over 35K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 35K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 35K
- Best context
- 52.2% at 1600-1799 Blitz
- Worst context
- 45.1% at 1600-1799 Rapid
- Average game length
- 34 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.8%
- Draws
- 4.2%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 44.0% at 0-999, 42.0% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (15 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 39.1% expected score (26 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 46.0% expected score (11 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 58.3% expected score (71 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 40.5% expected score (56 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 35.2% expected score (39 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 43.4% expected score (172 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (265 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 38.5% expected score (85 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (377 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (924 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 43.6% expected score (277 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.6% expected score (13 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (782 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (2,581 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (674 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 41.4% expected score (39 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (1,427 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (5,662 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (1,437 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.1% expected score (106 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (2,125 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (7,668 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (1,411 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 34.3% expected score (97 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (2,224 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (4,377 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 42.1% expected score (401 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (1,130 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 40.4% expected score (402 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (11 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation scores 49.1% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.7% and 49.6% — from 35K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 35K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation win rate?
Playing the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Black wins 47.0%, draws 4.2% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 35K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation perform best?
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation performs best for Black at 1600-1799, with an Expected Score of 50.6% (4.1K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 49.3% in Blitz (22K games) against 46.4% in Rapid (4.3K games).
How sharp is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation?
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation has a sharpness score of 95.8 (very decisive), meaning 95.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 43.9%, draws 5.7% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.8%. It rests on 166 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 43.5%, draws 1.8% and loses 54.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.4%. It rests on 526 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 48.5%, draws 3.1% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 49.0%, draws 3.2% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 4.1K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 47.2%, draws 3.5% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 8.6K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 47.4%, draws 4.2% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 46.4%, draws 5.5% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 7.0K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 42.2%, draws 6.4% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.4%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 49.2%, draws 2.9% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 8.3K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 47.0%, draws 4.5% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 22K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 44.0%, draws 4.7% and loses 51.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.4%. It rests on 4.3K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 37.9%, draws 7.2% and loses 54.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.5%. It rests on 269 Lichess games.
Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation a good opening?
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 47.0% of its games and loses 48.8%. It performs best at 1600-1799. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.