French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation
35K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
49.1%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.6%.
Measured over 35K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 35K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 35K
- Best context
- 52.2% at 2000-2199 Bullet
- Worst context
- 45.0% at 1600-1799 Rapid
- Average game length
- 34 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.8%
- Draws
- 4.2%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 44.0% at 0-999, 42.0% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (15 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 39.1% expected score (26 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 46.0% expected score (11 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 58.3% expected score (71 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 40.5% expected score (56 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 35.2% expected score (39 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 43.4% expected score (172 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (265 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 38.5% expected score (85 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (377 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (924 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 43.6% expected score (277 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.6% expected score (13 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (782 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (2,581 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (674 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 41.4% expected score (39 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (1,427 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (5,662 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (1,437 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.1% expected score (106 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (2,125 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (7,668 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (1,411 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 34.3% expected score (97 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (2,224 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (4,377 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 42.1% expected score (401 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (1,130 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 40.4% expected score (402 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (11 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation scores 49.1% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.7% and 49.6% — from 35K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 35K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games before we will say where it stops working. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation win rate?
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation scores 49.1% (range, 90% confident: 48.7% – 49.6%) for Black, based on 35K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation perform best?
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation performs best at 1600-1799, where it scores 50.6% for Black (4.1K games). It tends to score less at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, Bullet (50.7%) outperforms Classical (41.5%). Choose your time control wisely.
How sharp is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation?
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation has a sharpness score of 95.8 (very decisive), meaning 95.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation scores 46.8% (range, 90% confident: 40.4% – 53.1%) for Black, based on 166 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation scores 44.4% (range, 90% confident: 40.9% – 48.0%) for Black, based on 526 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 1.8% draw rate.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation scores 50.1% (range, 90% confident: 48.1% – 52.2%) for Black, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation scores 50.6% (range, 90% confident: 49.3% – 51.9%) for Black, based on 4.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation scores 49.0% (range, 90% confident: 48.1% – 49.8%) for Black, based on 8.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation scores 49.5% (range, 90% confident: 48.7% – 50.2%) for Black, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation scores 49.2% (range, 90% confident: 48.2% – 50.1%) for Black, based on 7.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation scores 45.4% (range, 90% confident: 43.3% – 47.5%) for Black, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.4% draw rate.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation scores 50.7% (range, 90% confident: 49.7% – 51.6%) for Black (8.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.9%.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation scores 49.3% (range, 90% confident: 48.7% – 49.8%) for Black (22K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation scores 46.4% (range, 90% confident: 45.1% – 47.6%) for Black (4.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation scores 41.5% (range, 90% confident: 36.7% – 46.5%) for Black (269 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.2%.
Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation a good opening?
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation is about level with a 48.8% (range, 90% confident: 48.4% – 49.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.