35K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation has a 49.1% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 48.7% and 49.6%), based on 35K Lichess games.
Stable across ratings (~42%)
Best in Bullet (49%), worst in Classical (38%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation has a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.4%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 35K rated games from Lichess.
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 54.7% win rate for white (526 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Rapid (51.3%) outperforms Bullet (47.9%) by 3.4%. Choose your time control wisely.
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation has a sharpness score of 95.8 (very decisive), meaning 95.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 44.1%-56.8%) win rate for white, based on 166 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation has a 54.7% (90% CI: 51.1%-58.2%) win rate for white, based on 526 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 1.8% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 46.3%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation has a 47.9% (90% CI: 46.6%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 4.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation has a 49.3% (90% CI: 48.5%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 8.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 47.7%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation has a 48.1% (90% CI: 47.1%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 7.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation has a 51.4% (90% CI: 49.3%-53.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.4% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation has a 47.9% (90% CI: 47.0%-48.8%) win rate for white (8.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.9%.
In Blitz games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 48.0%-49.1%) win rate for white (22K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.
In Rapid games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation has a 51.3% (90% CI: 50.1%-52.6%) win rate for white (4.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.
In Classical games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation has a 54.9% (90% CI: 49.9%-59.8%) win rate for white (269 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.2%.
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation is statistically balanced with a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.4%-49.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.