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French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine-Maróczy Gambit

77K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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4.Ne2
Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

53.9%

45%60%
Floor53.6%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 54.2%.

Measured over 77K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 5.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 77K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
77K
Best context
59.3% at 2200-2499 Rapid
Worst context
45.0% at 1200-1399 Bullet
Average game length
35 moves
Games that end decisively
94.2%
Draws
5.8%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +10.1% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 8.1% · Bullet best · Classical worst

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 54.4% at 0-999, 59.9% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 57.3% expected score (101 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (311 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (118 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (279 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 56.7% expected score (839 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (367 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 8.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.0% expected score (501 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (1,696 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (961 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (702 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (2,549 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (1,325 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 34.1% expected score (55 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (1,560 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (3,094 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.7% expected score (1,310 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 56.0% expected score (74 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 55.4% expected score (2,559 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.1% expected score (6,210 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 55.0% expected score (1,041 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.3% expected score (65 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (4,333 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (12,613 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.7% expected score (984 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 47.4% expected score (36 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (7,147 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (18,571 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 59.3% expected score (882 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 51.6% expected score (31 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.0% expected score (4,227 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.0% expected score (2,764 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 57.5% expected score (52 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Knight Variation
48.3%
French Defense: Exchange Variation
47.7%
French Defense: Normal Variation
50.3%
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Queen's Knight
48.5%
Analyze French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine-Maróczy Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine-Maróczy Gambit scores 53.9% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.6% and 54.2% — from 77K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
77K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine-Maróczy Gambit win rate?

Playing the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine-Maróczy Gambit, White wins 51.0%, draws 5.8% and loses 43.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 77K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine-Maróczy Gambit perform best?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine-Maróczy Gambit performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 56.0% (7.0K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine-Maróczy Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine-Maróczy Gambit scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 53.9% in Blitz (49K games) against 54.0% in Rapid (7.0K games).

How sharp is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine-Maróczy Gambit?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine-Maróczy Gambit has a sharpness score of 94.2 (decisive), meaning 94.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine-Maróczy Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 51.7%, draws 3.6% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.6%. It rests on 535 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine-Maróczy Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 52.8%, draws 3.0% and loses 44.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.3%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine-Maróczy Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 50.4%, draws 3.2% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 3.2K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine-Maróczy Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 50.0%, draws 3.4% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 4.6K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine-Maróczy Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 51.9%, draws 3.7% and loses 44.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.8%. It rests on 6.0K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine-Maróczy Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 53.0%, draws 4.3% and loses 42.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.2%. It rests on 9.9K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine-Maróczy Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 50.9%, draws 5.7% and loses 43.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 18K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine-Maróczy Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 49.9%, draws 7.3% and loses 42.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.6%. It rests on 27K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine-Maróczy Gambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 52.1%, draws 7.7% and loses 40.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.0%. It rests on 7.0K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine-Maróczy Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 51.8%, draws 4.2% and loses 44.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 21K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine-Maróczy Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 50.6%, draws 6.5% and loses 42.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 49K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine-Maróczy Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 51.2%, draws 5.6% and loses 43.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.0%. It rests on 7.0K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine-Maróczy Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 43.7%, draws 6.7% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 288 Lichess games.

Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine-Maróczy Gambit a good opening?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine-Maróczy Gambit is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 51.0% of its games and loses 43.3%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.