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French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit Accepted

26K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score41.7%Range (90% confident): 41.2% – 42.2%Based on 26K games
0%41.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 41.2% – 42.2%
Outcome Distribution
39.0%5.4%55.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
5...Bxc3+
French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit Accepted
Analyzen=26K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.4%

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit Accepted expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit Accepted has a 41.7% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 41.2% and 42.2%), based on 26K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: -12.0% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 89.4 · Trap factor: +10.4 · n=26K

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 53% → 37%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 52.6% win rate (85 games)
  • 1000-1199: 42.2% win rate (327 games)
  • 1200-1399: 44.4% win rate (721 games)
  • 1400-1599: 43.5% win rate (1,287 games)
  • 1600-1799: 44.3% win rate (2,471 games)
  • 1800-1999: 40.5% win rate (5,349 games)
  • 2000-2199: 38.1% win rate (7,806 games)
  • 2200-2499: 35.7% win rate (6,698 games)
  • 2500+: 36.7% win rate (1,223 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (60%), worst in Blitz (38%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 60.0% win rate (1 games)
  • Bullet: 40.4% win rate (6,554 games)
  • Blitz: 38.4% win rate (15,966 games)
  • Rapid: 39.4% win rate (3,256 games)
  • Classical: 41.5% win rate (190 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 43.6% expected score (14 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 55.9% expected score (58 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 60.4% expected score (13 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 56.3% expected score (62 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 41.2% expected score (186 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 41.3% expected score (79 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 42.7% expected score (115 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (356 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (246 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (205 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (673 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 44.3% expected score (380 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 43.5% expected score (29 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 45.1% expected score (581 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (1,347 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 44.8% expected score (500 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 44.4% expected score (43 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 41.9% expected score (1,129 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 42.4% expected score (3,460 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.9% expected score (700 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 52.5% expected score (59 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 43.4% expected score (1,567 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 40.7% expected score (5,426 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 37.5% expected score (780 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 45.7% expected score (33 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 41.3% expected score (1,988 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 38.1% expected score (4,142 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 37.5% expected score (546 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 24.5% expected score (22 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 39.2% expected score (893 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.8% expected score (318 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 61.1% expected score (12 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Knight Variation
48.3%
French Defense: Exchange Variation
47.7%
French Defense: Normal Variation
50.3%
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Queen's Knight
48.5%
Analyze French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit Accepted PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit Accepted win rate?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit Accepted has a 55.6% (90% CI: 55.1%-56.1%) win rate for white, based on 26K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit Accepted perform best?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit Accepted performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 57.9% win rate for white (6.7K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit Accepted better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (55.7%) outperforms Classical (51.4%) by 4.3%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit Accepted?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit Accepted has a sharpness score of 94.6 (decisive), meaning 94.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit Accepted win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit Accepted has a 54.0% (90% CI: 49.5%-58.5%) win rate for white, based on 327 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit Accepted win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit Accepted has a 52.2% (90% CI: 49.2%-55.3%) win rate for white, based on 721 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit Accepted win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit Accepted has a 52.4% (90% CI: 50.1%-54.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit Accepted win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit Accepted has a 52.1% (90% CI: 50.5%-53.8%) win rate for white, based on 2.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit Accepted win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit Accepted has a 54.8% (90% CI: 53.7%-56.0%) win rate for white, based on 5.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit Accepted win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit Accepted has a 56.2% (90% CI: 55.3%-57.2%) win rate for white, based on 7.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit Accepted win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit Accepted has a 57.9% (90% CI: 56.9%-58.9%) win rate for white, based on 6.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 6.5% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit Accepted win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit Accepted has a 56.0% (90% CI: 53.6%-58.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 7.3% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit Accepted win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit Accepted has a 55.7% (90% CI: 54.7%-56.7%) win rate for white (6.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit Accepted win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit Accepted has a 55.7% (90% CI: 55.1%-56.4%) win rate for white (16K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.9%.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit Accepted win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit Accepted has a 55.1% (90% CI: 53.7%-56.5%) win rate for white (3.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.5%.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit Accepted win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit Accepted has a 51.4% (90% CI: 45.5%-57.4%) win rate for white (190 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.0%.

Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit Accepted a good opening?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit Accepted is statistically favors white with a 55.6% (90% CI: 55.1%-56.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.