French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit Accepted
26K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
41.7%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 42.2%.
Measured over 26K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 5.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 26K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 26K
- Best context
- 47.1% at 1600-1799 Blitz
- Worst context
- 37.5% at 2000-2199 Rapid
- Average game length
- 34 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 94.6%
- Draws
- 5.4%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 53.3% at 0-999, 47.7% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 43.6% expected score (14 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 55.9% expected score (58 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 60.4% expected score (13 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 56.3% expected score (62 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 41.2% expected score (186 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 41.3% expected score (79 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 42.7% expected score (115 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (356 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (246 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (205 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (673 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 44.3% expected score (380 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 43.5% expected score (29 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 45.1% expected score (581 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (1,347 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 44.8% expected score (500 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 44.4% expected score (43 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 41.9% expected score (1,129 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 42.4% expected score (3,460 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.9% expected score (700 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 52.5% expected score (59 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 43.4% expected score (1,567 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 40.7% expected score (5,426 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 37.5% expected score (780 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 45.7% expected score (33 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 41.3% expected score (1,988 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 38.1% expected score (4,142 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 37.5% expected score (546 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 24.5% expected score (22 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 39.2% expected score (893 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.8% expected score (318 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 61.1% expected score (12 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit Accepted scores 41.7% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 41.2% and 42.2% — from 26K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 26K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit Accepted win rate?
Playing the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit Accepted, Black wins 39.0%, draws 5.4% and loses 55.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.7%. It rests on 26K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit Accepted perform best?
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit Accepted performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 54.6% (85 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit Accepted better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit Accepted scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 41.4% in Blitz (16K games) against 42.2% in Rapid (3.3K games).
How sharp is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit Accepted?
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit Accepted has a sharpness score of 94.6 (decisive), meaning 94.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit Accepted win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 42.2%, draws 3.8% and loses 54.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.1%. It rests on 327 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit Accepted win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 44.4%, draws 3.4% and loses 52.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.1%. It rests on 721 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit Accepted win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 43.5%, draws 4.1% and loses 52.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.6%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit Accepted win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 44.3%, draws 3.6% and loses 52.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.1%. It rests on 2.5K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit Accepted win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 40.5%, draws 4.7% and loses 54.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.9%. It rests on 5.3K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit Accepted win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 38.1%, draws 5.7% and loses 56.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.0%. It rests on 7.8K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit Accepted win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 35.7%, draws 6.5% and loses 57.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 38.9%. It rests on 6.7K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit Accepted win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 36.7%, draws 7.3% and loses 56.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.4%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit Accepted win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 40.4%, draws 4.0% and loses 55.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.4%. It rests on 6.6K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit Accepted win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 38.4%, draws 5.9% and loses 55.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.4%. It rests on 16K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit Accepted win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 39.4%, draws 5.5% and loses 55.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.2%. It rests on 3.3K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit Accepted win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 41.5%, draws 7.0% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.1%. It rests on 190 Lichess games.
Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit Accepted a good opening?
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit Accepted is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 39.0% of its games and loses 55.6%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.