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French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit, Kan Variation

12K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score47.5%Range (90% confident): 46.8% – 48.2%Based on 12K games
0%47.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 46.8% – 48.2%
Outcome Distribution
43.3%8.3%48.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
6...Nc6
French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit, Kan Variation
Analyzen=12K
Avg Length37 moves
Sharpness92%
Draw Rate8.3%

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit, Kan Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit, Kan Variation has a 47.5% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 46.8% and 48.2%), based on 12K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: -1.9% · Breakpoint: 1200-1399

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 90.0 · Trap factor: +1.5 · n=12K

Black Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~39%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 39.1% win rate (10 games)
  • 1000-1199: 56.4% win rate (49 games)
  • 1200-1399: 44.3% win rate (99 games)
  • 1400-1599: 51.5% win rate (153 games)
  • 1600-1799: 49.0% win rate (214 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.7% win rate (665 games)
  • 2000-2199: 47.7% win rate (2,524 games)
  • 2200-2499: 42.6% win rate (6,288 games)
  • 2500+: 38.0% win rate (2,137 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (47%), worst in Blitz (42%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 45.1% win rate (2,880 games)
  • Blitz: 42.4% win rate (8,410 games)
  • Rapid: 46.2% win rate (800 games)
  • Classical: 46.5% win rate (49 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 69.1% expected score (9 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (31 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 59.6% expected score (9 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 32.6% expected score (10 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 41.8% expected score (47 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 56.9% expected score (42 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 42.6% expected score (12 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 61.1% expected score (80 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (57 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 59.1% expected score (4 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (39 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (97 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 58.1% expected score (73 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 57.5% expected score (125 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (435 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (92 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 43.1% expected score (13 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (427 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (1,946 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.4% expected score (138 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 56.9% expected score (13 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (1,125 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (4,797 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (352 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (14 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.0% expected score (1,130 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 40.5% expected score (972 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 51.4% expected score (35 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Knight Variation
48.3%
French Defense: Exchange Variation
47.7%
French Defense: Normal Variation
50.3%
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Queen's Knight
48.5%
Analyze French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit, Kan Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit, Kan Variation win rate?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit, Kan Variation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 47.6%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 12K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit, Kan Variation perform best?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit, Kan Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 52.0% win rate for white (2.1K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit, Kan Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (48.7%) outperforms Rapid (43.4%) by 5.3%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit, Kan Variation?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit, Kan Variation has a sharpness score of 91.7 (decisive), meaning 91.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit, Kan Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit, Kan Variation has a 41.1% (90% CI: 34.7%-47.7%) win rate for white, based on 153 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 7.4% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit, Kan Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit, Kan Variation has a 44.3% (90% CI: 38.8%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 214 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 6.7% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit, Kan Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit, Kan Variation has a 49.3% (90% CI: 46.1%-52.5%) win rate for white, based on 665 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit, Kan Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit, Kan Variation has a 45.8% (90% CI: 44.1%-47.4%) win rate for white, based on 2.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 6.6% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit, Kan Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit, Kan Variation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 47.4%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 6.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 9.0% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit, Kan Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit, Kan Variation has a 52.0% (90% CI: 50.2%-53.8%) win rate for white, based on 2.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 10.0% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit, Kan Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit, Kan Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 47.4%-50.4%) win rate for white (2.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.0%.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit, Kan Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit, Kan Variation has a 48.7% (90% CI: 47.8%-49.6%) win rate for white (8.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.9%.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit, Kan Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit, Kan Variation has a 43.4% (90% CI: 40.5%-46.2%) win rate for white (800 Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.4%.

Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit, Kan Variation a good opening?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit, Kan Variation is statistically balanced with a 48.4% (90% CI: 47.6%-49.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.