French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit, Kan Variation
12K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
47.5%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 48.2%.
Measured over 12K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 8.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 12K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 12K
- Best context
- 50.7% at 2000-2199 Blitz
- Worst context
- 40.5% at 2500+ Blitz
- Average game length
- 37 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 91.7%
- Draws
- 8.3%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 43.8%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 69.1% expected score (9 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (31 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 59.6% expected score (9 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 32.6% expected score (10 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 41.8% expected score (47 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 56.9% expected score (42 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 42.6% expected score (12 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 61.1% expected score (80 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (57 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 59.1% expected score (4 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (39 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (97 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 58.1% expected score (73 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 57.5% expected score (125 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (435 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (92 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 43.1% expected score (13 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (427 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (1,946 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.4% expected score (138 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 56.9% expected score (13 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (1,125 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (4,797 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (352 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (14 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.0% expected score (1,130 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 40.5% expected score (972 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 51.4% expected score (35 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit, Kan Variation scores 47.5% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 46.8% and 48.2% — from 12K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 12K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit, Kan Variation win rate?
Playing the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit, Kan Variation, Black wins 43.3%, draws 8.3% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 12K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit, Kan Variation perform best?
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit, Kan Variation performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 51.0% (2.5K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit, Kan Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit, Kan Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 46.9% in Blitz (8.4K games) against 51.4% in Rapid (800 games).
How sharp is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit, Kan Variation?
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit, Kan Variation has a sharpness score of 91.7 (decisive), meaning 91.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit, Kan Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 51.5%, draws 7.4% and loses 41.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.2%. It rests on 153 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit, Kan Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 49.0%, draws 6.7% and loses 44.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 214 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit, Kan Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 45.7%, draws 5.0% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 665 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit, Kan Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 47.7%, draws 6.6% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 2.5K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit, Kan Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 42.6%, draws 9.0% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 6.3K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit, Kan Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 38.0%, draws 10.0% and loses 52.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.0%. It rests on 2.1K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit, Kan Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 45.1%, draws 6.0% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 2.9K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit, Kan Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 42.4%, draws 8.9% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 8.4K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit, Kan Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 46.2%, draws 10.4% and loses 43.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 800 Lichess games.
Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit, Kan Variation a good opening?
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine Gambit, Kan Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 43.3% of its games and loses 48.4%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.