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French Defense: Winawer Variation, Fingerslip Variation

163K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

51.8%

45%55%
Floor51.6%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.0%.

Measured over 163K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 163K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
163K
Best context
55.3% at 2500+ Bullet
Worst context
46.3% at 1400-1599 Classical
Average game length
32 moves
Games that end decisively
96.1%
Draws
3.9%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 12.5% · Blitz best · UltraBullet worst

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 46.5% at 0-999, 57.2% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (1,331 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (6,089 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2,426 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 13.7% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (2,209 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (9,912 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (5,801 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 39.8% expected score (101 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 43.6% expected score (14 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (2,972 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (12,460 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (8,893 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 47.7% expected score (365 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 33.2% expected score (37 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (4,270 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (14,380 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.5% expected score (9,741 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.3% expected score (728 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 35.6% expected score (54 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (5,841 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (13,450 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (7,005 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.5% expected score (567 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 64.7% expected score (19 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (6,534 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (13,604 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (4,320 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 52.9% expected score (240 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 61.8% expected score (7 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (6,179 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.6% expected score (10,813 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (1,559 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 47.7% expected score (42 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (4,789 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (4,038 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 59.0% expected score (482 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.3% expected score (1,192 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.7% expected score (227 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 60.6% expected score (8 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Knight Variation
48.3%
French Defense: Exchange Variation
47.7%
French Defense: Normal Variation
50.3%
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Queen's Knight
48.5%
Continuations (2)
French Defense: Winawer Variation, Fingerslip Variation, Main Line
50.8%
French Defense: Winawer Variation, Fingerslip Variation, Kunin Double Gambit
56.2%
Analyze French Defense: Winawer Variation, Fingerslip Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Fingerslip Variation scores 51.8% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.6% and 52.0% — from 163K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
163K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Fingerslip Variation win rate?

Playing the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Fingerslip Variation, White wins 49.8%, draws 3.9% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 163K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Fingerslip Variation perform best?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Fingerslip Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 55.4% (1.4K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Fingerslip Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Fingerslip Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 52.4% in Blitz (85K games) against 51.1% in Rapid (40K games).

How sharp is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Fingerslip Variation?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Fingerslip Variation has a sharpness score of 96.1 (very decisive), meaning 96.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Fingerslip Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 48.4%, draws 3.8% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 9.9K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Fingerslip Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 49.8%, draws 3.7% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 18K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Fingerslip Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 49.5%, draws 3.7% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 25K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Fingerslip Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 49.3%, draws 3.4% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 29K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Fingerslip Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 50.3%, draws 3.6% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.1%. It rests on 27K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Fingerslip Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 50.2%, draws 3.9% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 25K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Fingerslip Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 50.7%, draws 4.4% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 19K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Fingerslip Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 49.7%, draws 5.6% and loses 44.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 9.3K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Fingerslip Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 51.6%, draws 7.6% and loses 40.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.4%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Fingerslip Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 37.9%, draws 3.2% and loses 58.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.6%. It rests on 137 Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Fingerslip Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 50.1%, draws 2.9% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 35K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Fingerslip Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 50.4%, draws 4.0% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 85K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Fingerslip Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 48.8%, draws 4.5% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 40K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Fingerslip Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 44.6%, draws 4.7% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 2.1K Lichess games.

Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Fingerslip Variation a good opening?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Fingerslip Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 49.8% of its games and loses 46.3%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.