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French Defense: Carlson Gambit

216K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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4.Ne5
Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

48.8%

45%55%
Floor48.6%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.0%.

Measured over 216K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 216K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
216K
Best context
54.1% at 1800-1999 UltraBullet
Worst context
45.0% at 0-999 Rapid
Average game length
30 moves
Games that end decisively
96.7%
Draws
3.3%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: −1.0% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 10.0% · UltraBullet best · Classical worst

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 45.2% at 0-999, 53.5% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 44.2% expected score (84 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (6,072 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (7,586 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.0% expected score (3,352 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 42.5% expected score (25 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 51.5% expected score (261 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (11,499 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (9,276 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.7% expected score (3,870 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 38.7% expected score (69 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 48.1% expected score (633 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (16,799 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (11,438 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (4,284 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 38.6% expected score (152 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 48.2% expected score (1,003 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (23,491 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (14,592 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.6% expected score (3,937 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 41.3% expected score (245 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.3% expected score (1,351 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (23,593 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (14,651 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (3,022 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.1% expected score (128 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 54.1% expected score (758 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (21,287 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (9,163 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.9% expected score (1,607 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 40.5% expected score (51 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 54.3% expected score (220 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (11,770 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (2,327 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 43.4% expected score (351 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 55.3% expected score (8 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 53.6% expected score (97 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (4,755 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (824 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 64.4% expected score (68 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 61.8% expected score (7 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (1,210 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (14 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Knight Variation
48.3%
French Defense: Exchange Variation
47.7%
French Defense: Normal Variation
50.3%
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Queen's Knight
48.5%
Analyze French Defense: Carlson Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Carlson Gambit scores 48.8% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.6% and 49.0% — from 216K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
216K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Carlson Gambit win rate?

Playing the French Defense: Carlson Gambit, White wins 47.1%, draws 3.3% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 216K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Carlson Gambit perform best?

The French Defense: Carlson Gambit performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 51.8% (1.2K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the French Defense: Carlson Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the French Defense: Carlson Gambit scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 47.7% in Blitz (70K games) against 46.7% in Rapid (20K games).

How sharp is the French Defense: Carlson Gambit?

The French Defense: Carlson Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.7 (very decisive), meaning 96.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the French Defense: Carlson Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 44.7%, draws 3.6% and loses 51.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.5%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the French Defense: Carlson Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 47.1%, draws 3.0% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 25K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the French Defense: Carlson Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 48.1%, draws 2.9% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 33K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the French Defense: Carlson Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 47.1%, draws 2.8% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 43K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the French Defense: Carlson Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 47.6%, draws 3.2% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 43K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the French Defense: Carlson Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 46.9%, draws 3.6% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 33K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the French Defense: Carlson Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 46.9%, draws 4.3% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 15K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the French Defense: Carlson Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 47.0%, draws 5.4% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 5.7K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the French Defense: Carlson Gambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 49.1%, draws 5.4% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the French Defense: Carlson Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 49.7%, draws 1.4% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 4.4K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Carlson Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 48.3%, draws 2.7% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 120K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Carlson Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 45.7%, draws 4.1% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 70K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Carlson Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 44.5%, draws 4.4% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 20K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Carlson Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 39.7%, draws 3.6% and loses 56.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.5%. It rests on 680 Lichess games.

Is the French Defense: Carlson Gambit a good opening?

The French Defense: Carlson Gambit is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 47.1% of its games and loses 49.6%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.