French Defense: Classical Variation, Alapin Variation
20K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
59.3%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 59.9%.
Measured over 20K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 4.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 20K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 20K
- Best context
- 63.0% at 1800-1999 Bullet
- Worst context
- 54.9% at 2000-2199 Rapid
- Average game length
- 35 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.6%
- Draws
- 4.4%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 59.8% at 0-999, 52.6% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 65.4% expected score (5 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 64.6% expected score (26 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 59.6% expected score (9 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 55.8% expected score (50 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (101 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 57.1% expected score (34 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 63.7% expected score (134 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 60.3% expected score (340 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (107 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 10.0% expected score (6 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 55.6% expected score (518 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (989 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 60.3% expected score (257 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.7% expected score (20 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 63.0% expected score (2,003 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 56.7% expected score (2,882 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 57.0% expected score (560 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 58.2% expected score (54 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 62.8% expected score (2,335 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 58.4% expected score (3,962 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.9% expected score (572 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 56.4% expected score (30 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 61.5% expected score (1,461 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 58.7% expected score (2,092 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 69.8% expected score (188 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 62.0% expected score (1,382 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (96 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (8 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Classical Variation, Alapin Variation scores 59.3% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 58.8% and 59.9% — from 20K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 20K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Alapin Variation win rate?
Playing the French Defense: Classical Variation, Alapin Variation, White wins 57.1%, draws 4.4% and loses 38.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.3%. It rests on 20K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the French Defense: Classical Variation, Alapin Variation perform best?
The French Defense: Classical Variation, Alapin Variation performs best for White at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 60.4% (3.7K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Alapin Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the French Defense: Classical Variation, Alapin Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 57.6% in Blitz (10K games) against 58.0% in Rapid (1.7K games).
How sharp is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Alapin Variation?
The French Defense: Classical Variation, Alapin Variation has a sharpness score of 95.6 (very decisive), meaning 95.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Alapin Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 53.3%, draws 4.0% and loses 42.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.3%. It rests on 187 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Alapin Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 57.5%, draws 3.5% and loses 39.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.3%. It rests on 587 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Alapin Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 54.1%, draws 3.7% and loses 42.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.9%. It rests on 1.8K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Alapin Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 57.3%, draws 3.5% and loses 39.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.1%. It rests on 5.5K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Alapin Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 57.2%, draws 4.7% and loses 38.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.6%. It rests on 6.9K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Alapin Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 57.6%, draws 5.5% and loses 36.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 60.4%. It rests on 3.7K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Alapin Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 58.6%, draws 5.1% and loses 36.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 61.2%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Alapin Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 60.3%, draws 3.2% and loses 36.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 61.9%. It rests on 7.9K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Alapin Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 55.1%, draws 5.0% and loses 39.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.6%. It rests on 10K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Alapin Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 54.9%, draws 6.2% and loses 38.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.0%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Alapin Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 49.4%, draws 9.7% and loses 40.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.3%. It rests on 117 Lichess games.
Is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Alapin Variation a good opening?
The French Defense: Classical Variation, Alapin Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 57.1% of its games and loses 38.5%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.