French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Chistyakov Defense
93K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
48.8%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.1%.
Measured over 93K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 8.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 93K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 93K
- Best context
- 52.2% at 1600-1799 Bullet
- Worst context
- 44.8% at 2500+ Blitz
- Average game length
- 38 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 91.8%
- Draws
- 8.2%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 43.8%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 57.6% expected score (25 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 37.1% expected score (41 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (96 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 42.8% expected score (89 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (41 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (197 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (336 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 37.1% expected score (76 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 40.9% expected score (4 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (541 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (1,101 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 42.2% expected score (287 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 26.4% expected score (26 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (1,445 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (3,076 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (739 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 39.0% expected score (71 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (2,751 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (9,713 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (1,892 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.1% expected score (180 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (4,052 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (17,901 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (3,220 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 44.3% expected score (130 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (8,505 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (22,410 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (2,179 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 47.4% expected score (56 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (6,304 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.8% expected score (5,546 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 41.3% expected score (194 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (15 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Chistyakov Defense scores 48.8% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.5% and 49.1% — from 93K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 93K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Chistyakov Defense win rate?
Playing the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Chistyakov Defense, Black wins 44.7%, draws 8.2% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 93K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Chistyakov Defense perform best?
The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Chistyakov Defense performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 50.0% (15K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Chistyakov Defense better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Chistyakov Defense scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 48.8% in Blitz (60K games) against 47.3% in Rapid (8.6K games).
How sharp is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Chistyakov Defense?
The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Chistyakov Defense has a sharpness score of 91.8 (decisive), meaning 91.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Chistyakov Defense win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 46.4%, draws 2.9% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 226 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Chistyakov Defense win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 46.3%, draws 2.2% and loses 51.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 613 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Chistyakov Defense win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 46.4%, draws 3.6% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 2.0K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Chistyakov Defense win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 47.1%, draws 4.0% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 5.3K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Chistyakov Defense win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 47.0%, draws 5.9% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 15K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Chistyakov Defense win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 45.9%, draws 7.7% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 25K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Chistyakov Defense win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 43.9%, draws 9.5% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 33K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Chistyakov Defense win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 40.1%, draws 11.1% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.7%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 44 moves.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Chistyakov Defense win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 46.6%, draws 5.6% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 24K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Chistyakov Defense win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 44.3%, draws 8.9% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 60K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Chistyakov Defense win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 42.5%, draws 9.6% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 8.6K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Chistyakov Defense win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 37.3%, draws 14.0% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.3%. It rests on 482 Lichess games.
Is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Chistyakov Defense a good opening?
The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Chistyakov Defense is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 44.7% of its games and loses 47.2%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.