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French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation

1.9K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

52.4%

45%60%
Floor50.6%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 54.3%.

Measured over 1.9K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 5.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 1.9K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
1.9K
Best context
not measured yet
Average game length
35 moves
Games that end decisively
94.6%
Draws
5.4%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 9.2% · Bullet best · Rapid worst

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 56.9% at 0-999, 48.6% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 32.6% expected score (10 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 68.2% expected score (15 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 67.1% expected score (19 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 14.7% expected score (7 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (21 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (33 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 26.2% expected score (9 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 61.8% expected score (24 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (75 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 44.9% expected score (18 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (42 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (106 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (30 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (81 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (208 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 38.4% expected score (33 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 55.2% expected score (123 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (367 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 60.2% expected score (28 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (199 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.7% expected score (331 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 64.0% expected score (20 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (65 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (33 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Knight Variation
48.3%
French Defense: Exchange Variation
47.7%
French Defense: Normal Variation
50.3%
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Queen's Knight
48.5%
Analyze French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation scores 52.4% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.6% and 54.3% — from 1.9K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
1.9K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation win rate?

Playing the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation, White wins 49.7%, draws 5.4% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 1.9K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation perform best?

The French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation performs best for White at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 53.5% (551 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 52.9% in Blitz (1.2K games) against 45.7% in Rapid (159 games).

How sharp is the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation?

The French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation has a sharpness score of 94.6 (decisive), meaning 94.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 50.2%, draws 4.6% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 119 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 50.4%, draws 4.1% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 180 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 48.1%, draws 5.1% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 324 Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 50.6%, draws 4.5% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 519 Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 49.7%, draws 7.5% and loses 42.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.5%. It rests on 551 Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 44.9%, draws 7.2% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 102 Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 51.3%, draws 4.1% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 573 Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 49.9%, draws 6.0% and loses 44.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 42.1%, draws 7.2% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.7%. It rests on 159 Lichess games.

Is the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation a good opening?

The French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 49.7% of its games and loses 44.9%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.