French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Shaposhnikov Gambit
620 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
48.3%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.6%.
Measured over 620 games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 620 games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 620
- Best context
- not measured yet
- Average game length
- 33 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.3%
- Draws
- 4.7%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 26.7% at 1000-1199, 47.0% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | ||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (13 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 56.7% expected score (6 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 43.0% expected score (20 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 60.3% expected score (18 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (25 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 61.8% expected score (54 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 57.5% expected score (12 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 42.4% expected score (57 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 61.2% expected score (79 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (22 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (56 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (64 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 33.0% expected score (22 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 35.8% expected score (97 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (30 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.9% expected score (23 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Shaposhnikov Gambit scores 48.3% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 45.1% and 51.6% — from 620 Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 620+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Shaposhnikov Gambit win rate?
Playing the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Shaposhnikov Gambit, Black wins 45.9%, draws 4.7% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 620 rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Shaposhnikov Gambit perform best?
The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Shaposhnikov Gambit performs best for Black at 1600-1799, with an Expected Score of 58.6% (92 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Shaposhnikov Gambit better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Shaposhnikov Gambit scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 57.7% in Blitz (253 games) against 41.4% in Rapid (68 games).
How sharp is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Shaposhnikov Gambit?
The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Shaposhnikov Gambit has a sharpness score of 95.3 (very decisive), meaning 95.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Shaposhnikov Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 48.9%, draws 5.9% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 159 Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Shaposhnikov Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 44.6%, draws 5.9% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 143 Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Shaposhnikov Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 36.3%, draws 4.9% and loses 58.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 38.8%. It rests on 132 Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Shaposhnikov Gambit win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 39.0%, draws 5.9% and loses 55.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.0%. It rests on 295 Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Shaposhnikov Gambit win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 55.6%, draws 4.1% and loses 40.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.7%. It rests on 253 Lichess games.
Is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Shaposhnikov Gambit a good opening?
The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Shaposhnikov Gambit is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 45.9% of its games and loses 49.3%. It performs best at 1600-1799. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.