French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation
66K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
54.6%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 55.0%.
Measured over 66K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 5.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 66K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 66K
- Best context
- 60.3% at 2500+ Blitz
- Worst context
- 49.6% at 1400-1599 Blitz
- Average game length
- 36 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 94.6%
- Draws
- 5.4%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 50.0% at 0-999, 61.4% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 43.3% expected score (28 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (50 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (17 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (76 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 55.3% expected score (131 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (41 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (177 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (337 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (119 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (396 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (756 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.4% expected score (238 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 52.5% expected score (19 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (1,283 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.9% expected score (1,920 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (417 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.5% expected score (32 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (2,483 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (6,425 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.9% expected score (894 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 60.2% expected score (67 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (4,459 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (13,861 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 56.2% expected score (1,160 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 63.6% expected score (54 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.5% expected score (7,854 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.3% expected score (15,166 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 59.9% expected score (903 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (14 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.5% expected score (4,297 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 60.3% expected score (1,820 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 58.8% expected score (50 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation scores 54.6% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 54.3% and 55.0% — from 66K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 66K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate?
Playing the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, White wins 51.9%, draws 5.4% and loses 42.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.6%. It rests on 66K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation perform best?
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 57.6% (6.2K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 54.7% in Blitz (40K games) against 55.6% in Rapid (3.8K games).
How sharp is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation?
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation has a sharpness score of 94.6 (decisive), meaning 94.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 52.3%, draws 2.2% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 248 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 50.4%, draws 3.4% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.1%. It rests on 636 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 49.8%, draws 2.9% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 51.9%, draws 3.6% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 3.7K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 51.8%, draws 3.8% and loses 44.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 9.9K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 51.3%, draws 5.2% and loses 43.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 20K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 52.0%, draws 6.4% and loses 41.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.2%. It rests on 24K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 53.9%, draws 7.4% and loses 38.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.6%. It rests on 6.2K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 52.2%, draws 4.1% and loses 43.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.3%. It rests on 21K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 51.6%, draws 6.1% and loses 42.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.7%. It rests on 40K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 52.5%, draws 6.3% and loses 41.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.6%. It rests on 3.8K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 53.8%, draws 10.2% and loses 36.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.9%. It rests on 189 Lichess games.
Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation a good opening?
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 51.9% of its games and loses 42.7%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.