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French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit

10K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

48.3%

40%55%
Floor47.5%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.2%.

Measured over 10K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 10K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
10K
Best context
56.3% at 2000-2199 Bullet
Worst context
45.4% at 1400-1599 Blitz
Average game length
32 moves
Games that end decisively
96.5%
Draws
3.5%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +4.1% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 39.2% at 0-999, 53.7% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 34.9% expected score (35 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 42.4% expected score (44 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 40.3% expected score (14 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (104 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (163 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 43.6% expected score (45 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 41.7% expected score (208 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 41.9% expected score (381 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (85 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 40.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 43.5% expected score (341 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.4% expected score (990 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 41.2% expected score (252 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 15.2% expected score (10 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (355 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (1,306 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.6% expected score (492 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (44 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (544 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (1,637 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.5% expected score (490 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 25.8% expected score (15 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 56.3% expected score (559 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (870 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.7% expected score (187 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (323 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 58.9% expected score (218 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (45 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 60.4% expected score (240 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (99 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Knight Variation
48.3%
French Defense: Exchange Variation
47.7%
French Defense: Normal Variation
50.3%
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Queen's Knight
48.5%
Analyze French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit scores 48.3% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.5% and 49.2% — from 10K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
10K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit win rate?

Playing the French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit, White wins 46.5%, draws 3.5% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 10K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit perform best?

The French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 56.5% (339 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 48.0% in Blitz (5.7K games) against 46.1% in Rapid (1.6K games).

How sharp is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit?

The French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.5 (very decisive), meaning 96.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 44.5%, draws 3.7% and loses 51.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.4%. It rests on 312 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 41.2%, draws 2.7% and loses 56.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.6%. It rests on 680 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 42.5%, draws 3.0% and loses 54.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.1%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 45.2%, draws 3.3% and loses 51.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 2.2K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 46.4%, draws 4.0% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 2.7K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 52.1%, draws 2.9% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.6%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 52.5%, draws 4.5% and loses 43.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.8%. It rests on 586 Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 53.0%, draws 6.9% and loses 40.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.5%. It rests on 339 Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 49.6%, draws 2.0% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 2.7K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 46.1%, draws 3.8% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 5.7K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 43.7%, draws 4.7% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.1%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games.

Is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit a good opening?

The French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit is hard work for White — it favours Black. Across all ratings, White wins 46.5% of its games and loses 49.9%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.