French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation
224K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
50.8%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.0%.
Measured over 224K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 5.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 224K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 224K
- Best context
- 55.0% at 1400-1599 Rapid
- Worst context
- 42.9% at 2500+ Blitz
- Average game length
- 37 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 94.7%
- Draws
- 5.3%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 59.9% at 0-999, 39.5% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.9% expected score (516 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 58.9% expected score (404 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 55.9% expected score (67 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (1,457 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (2,027 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (567 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (2,819 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (5,842 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (2,004 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 59.4% expected score (41 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (3,879 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (11,294 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 55.0% expected score (4,444 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.6% expected score (164 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (5,992 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (16,928 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (6,701 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.3% expected score (450 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (9,338 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (25,622 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (7,465 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 59.0% expected score (437 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (12,342 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (36,322 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (5,673 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 51.1% expected score (237 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (17,196 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (30,355 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (2,265 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 45.3% expected score (62 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.2% expected score (7,032 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.9% expected score (3,749 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 39.8% expected score (67 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation scores 50.8% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.6% and 51.0% — from 224K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 224K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation win rate?
Playing the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation, Black wins 48.1%, draws 5.3% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 224K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation perform best?
The French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 56.6% (988 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 50.9% in Blitz (133K games) against 52.0% in Rapid (29K games).
How sharp is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation?
The French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation has a sharpness score of 94.7 (decisive), meaning 94.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 55.9%, draws 1.4% and loses 42.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.6%. It rests on 988 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 51.5%, draws 3.1% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 4.1K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 51.1%, draws 3.3% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 51.4%, draws 3.6% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 20K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 50.6%, draws 4.3% and loses 45.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 30K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 49.3%, draws 5.0% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 43K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 47.7%, draws 5.8% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 55K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 45.3%, draws 6.5% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 50K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 40.7%, draws 7.2% and loses 52.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.3%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 48.0%, draws 3.8% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 61K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 48.0%, draws 5.7% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 133K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 48.9%, draws 6.1% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 29K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 51.0%, draws 7.1% and loses 42.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.5%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games.
Is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation a good opening?
The French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 48.1% of its games and loses 46.6%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.