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French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation

224K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score50.8%Range (90% confident): 50.6% – 51.0%Based on 224K games
0%50.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 50.6% – 51.0%
Outcome Distribution
48.1%5.3%46.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
5...Bd7
French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation
Analyzen=224K
Avg Length37 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.3%

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation has a 50.8% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 50.6% and 51.0%), based on 224K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 56% → 41%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 55.9% win rate (988 games)
  • 1000-1199: 51.5% win rate (4,053 games)
  • 1200-1399: 51.1% win rate (10,707 games)
  • 1400-1599: 51.4% win rate (19,783 games)
  • 1600-1799: 50.6% win rate (30,071 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.3% win rate (42,863 games)
  • 2000-2199: 47.7% win rate (54,574 games)
  • 2200-2499: 45.3% win rate (49,878 games)
  • 2500+: 40.7% win rate (10,849 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (51%), worst in UltraBullet (47%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 46.7% win rate (6 games)
  • Bullet: 48.0% win rate (60,571 games)
  • Blitz: 48.0% win rate (132,543 games)
  • Rapid: 48.9% win rate (29,253 games)
  • Classical: 51.0% win rate (1,393 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.9% expected score (516 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 58.9% expected score (404 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 55.9% expected score (67 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (1,457 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (2,027 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (567 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (2,819 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (5,842 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (2,004 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 59.4% expected score (41 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (3,879 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (11,294 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 55.0% expected score (4,444 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.6% expected score (164 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (5,992 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (16,928 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (6,701 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.3% expected score (450 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (9,338 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (25,622 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (7,465 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 59.0% expected score (437 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (12,342 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (36,322 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (5,673 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 51.1% expected score (237 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (17,196 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (30,355 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (2,265 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 45.3% expected score (62 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.2% expected score (7,032 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.9% expected score (3,749 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 39.8% expected score (67 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Knight Variation
48.3%
French Defense: Exchange Variation
47.7%
French Defense: Normal Variation
50.3%
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Queen's Knight
48.5%
Analyze French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation win rate?

The French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation has a 46.6% (90% CI: 46.4%-46.8%) win rate for white, based on 224K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation perform best?

The French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 52.1% win rate for white (11K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (48.2%) outperforms Classical (42.0%) by 6.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation?

The French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation has a sharpness score of 94.7 (decisive), meaning 94.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation has a 42.7% (90% CI: 40.1%-45.3%) win rate for white, based on 988 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 1.4% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation has a 45.4% (90% CI: 44.1%-46.7%) win rate for white, based on 4.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation has a 45.6% (90% CI: 44.8%-46.4%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation has a 45.0% (90% CI: 44.4%-45.6%) win rate for white, based on 20K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation has a 45.1% (90% CI: 44.7%-45.6%) win rate for white, based on 30K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation has a 45.8% (90% CI: 45.4%-46.2%) win rate for white, based on 43K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation has a 46.4% (90% CI: 46.1%-46.8%) win rate for white, based on 55K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.8% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation has a 48.3% (90% CI: 47.9%-48.6%) win rate for white, based on 50K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.5% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation has a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.3%-52.9%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 7.2% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation has a 48.2% (90% CI: 47.8%-48.5%) win rate for white (61K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.8%.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation has a 46.3% (90% CI: 46.1%-46.5%) win rate for white (133K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.7%.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation has a 45.0% (90% CI: 44.5%-45.5%) win rate for white (29K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.1%.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation has a 42.0% (90% CI: 39.8%-44.2%) win rate for white (1.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.1%.

Is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation a good opening?

The French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation is statistically balanced with a 46.6% (90% CI: 46.4%-46.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.