French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation
224K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
50.8%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.0%.
Measured over 224K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 5.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 224K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 224K
- Best context
- 55.0% at 1400-1599 Rapid
- Worst context
- 42.8% at 2500+ Blitz
- Average game length
- 37 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 94.7%
- Draws
- 5.3%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 59.9% at 0-999, 39.5% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.9% expected score (516 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 58.9% expected score (404 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 55.9% expected score (67 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (1,457 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (2,027 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (567 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (2,819 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (5,842 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (2,004 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 59.4% expected score (41 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (3,879 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (11,294 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 55.0% expected score (4,444 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.6% expected score (164 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (5,992 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (16,928 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (6,701 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.3% expected score (450 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (9,338 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (25,622 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (7,465 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 59.0% expected score (437 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (12,342 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (36,322 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (5,673 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 51.1% expected score (237 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (17,196 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (30,355 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (2,265 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 45.3% expected score (62 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.2% expected score (7,032 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.9% expected score (3,749 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 39.8% expected score (67 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation scores 50.8% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.6% and 51.0% — from 224K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 224K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games before we will say where it stops working. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation win rate?
The French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation scores 50.8% (range, 90% confident: 50.6% – 51.0%) for Black, based on 224K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation perform best?
The French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation performs best at 0-999, where it scores 56.6% for Black (988 games). It tends to score less at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, Classical (54.5%) outperforms Bullet (49.9%). Choose your time control wisely.
How sharp is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation?
The French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation has a sharpness score of 94.7 (decisive), meaning 94.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation scores 56.6% (range, 90% confident: 54.0% – 59.2%) for Black, based on 988 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 1.4% draw rate.
What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation scores 53.1% (range, 90% confident: 51.8% – 54.4%) for Black, based on 4.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.
What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation scores 52.8% (range, 90% confident: 52.0% – 53.6%) for Black, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.
What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation scores 53.2% (range, 90% confident: 52.6% – 53.8%) for Black, based on 20K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.
What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation scores 52.8% (range, 90% confident: 52.3% – 53.2%) for Black, based on 30K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.
What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation scores 51.8% (range, 90% confident: 51.4% – 52.2%) for Black, based on 43K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.
What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation scores 50.7% (range, 90% confident: 50.3% – 51.0%) for Black, based on 55K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.8% draw rate.
What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation scores 48.5% (range, 90% confident: 48.2% – 48.9%) for Black, based on 50K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.5% draw rate.
What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation scores 44.3% (range, 90% confident: 43.6% – 45.1%) for Black, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 7.2% draw rate.
What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet games, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation scores 49.9% (range, 90% confident: 49.6% – 50.3%) for Black (61K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.8%.
What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz games, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation scores 50.9% (range, 90% confident: 50.6% – 51.1%) for Black (133K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.7%.
What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid games, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation scores 52.0% (range, 90% confident: 51.5% – 52.5%) for Black (29K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.1%.
What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical games, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation scores 54.5% (range, 90% confident: 52.3% – 56.7%) for Black (1.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.1%.
Is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation a good opening?
The French Defense: Advance Variation, Wade Variation is about level with a 46.6% (range, 90% confident: 46.4% – 46.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.