French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation, Moscow Variation
24K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
54.0%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 54.6%.
Measured over 24K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 3.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 24K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 24K
- Best context
- 57.5% at 2200-2499 Blitz
- Worst context
- 51.3% at 2000-2199 Bullet
- Average game length
- 32 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.2%
- Draws
- 3.8%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 43.4% at 0-999, 53.8% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | ||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 32.8% expected score (13 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 76.7% expected score (6 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (37 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 56.4% expected score (85 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 58.6% expected score (16 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (179 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (277 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.2% expected score (94 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (490 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (1,181 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (246 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (21 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (1,158 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (3,185 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (518 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (41 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (1,858 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (6,057 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.3% expected score (619 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 54.9% expected score (29 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.4% expected score (2,595 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 57.5% expected score (3,254 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.0% expected score (396 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (5 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.4% expected score (1,055 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 66.4% expected score (200 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation, Moscow Variation scores 54.0% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.5% and 54.6% — from 24K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 24K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation, Moscow Variation win rate?
Playing the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation, Moscow Variation, White wins 52.1%, draws 3.8% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.0%. It rests on 24K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation, Moscow Variation perform best?
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation, Moscow Variation performs best for White at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 56.5% (6.3K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation, Moscow Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation, Moscow Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 54.6% in Blitz (14K games) against 54.1% in Rapid (1.9K games).
How sharp is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation, Moscow Variation?
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation, Moscow Variation has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation, Moscow Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 52.7%, draws 5.4% and loses 41.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.4%. It rests on 138 Lichess games, which average 25 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation, Moscow Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 51.5%, draws 1.5% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 555 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation, Moscow Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 48.8%, draws 2.4% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation, Moscow Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 50.4%, draws 3.5% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 4.9K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation, Moscow Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 51.8%, draws 4.2% and loses 44.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 8.6K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation, Moscow Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 54.5%, draws 4.0% and loses 41.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.5%. It rests on 6.3K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation, Moscow Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 55.0%, draws 4.3% and loses 40.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.2%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation, Moscow Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 51.6%, draws 2.7% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 7.4K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation, Moscow Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 52.5%, draws 4.2% and loses 43.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.6%. It rests on 14K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation, Moscow Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 51.7%, draws 4.8% and loses 43.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.1%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation, Moscow Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 48.3%, draws 12.2% and loses 39.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.4%. It rests on 101 Lichess games.
Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation, Moscow Variation a good opening?
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation, Moscow Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 52.1% of its games and loses 44.1%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.