French Defense: Chigorin Variation
545K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
53.7%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 53.8%.
Measured over 545K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 4.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 545K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 545K
- Best context
- 58.6% at 2500+ Bullet
- Worst context
- 41.5% at 1000-1199 UltraBullet
- Average game length
- 36 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.6%
- Draws
- 4.4%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 45.0% at 0-999, 53.0% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 40.2% expected score (75 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 44.9% expected score (1,580 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (3,392 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (2,014 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 47.5% expected score (18 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 41.5% expected score (534 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (2,131 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (3,151 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (1,394 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 33.5% expected score (77 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 48.1% expected score (463 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (6,002 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (5,801 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (1,751 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 42.7% expected score (107 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 45.9% expected score (340 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (12,347 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (15,341 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (3,023 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 45.8% expected score (211 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 42.8% expected score (502 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (28,115 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (34,619 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (5,888 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.7% expected score (487 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 52.3% expected score (572 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (37,260 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (66,069 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (11,259 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 55.4% expected score (379 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 52.7% expected score (169 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (51,571 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (75,406 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (9,443 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 53.8% expected score (263 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 45.8% expected score (22 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.6% expected score (77,201 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.2% expected score (49,976 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.3% expected score (4,038 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 54.3% expected score (57 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 58.6% expected score (26,249 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 58.5% expected score (5,745 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 64.8% expected score (124 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Chigorin Variation scores 53.7% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.5% and 53.8% — from 545K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 545K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the French Defense: Chigorin Variation win rate?
Playing the French Defense: Chigorin Variation, White wins 51.4%, draws 4.4% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 545K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the French Defense: Chigorin Variation perform best?
The French Defense: Chigorin Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 58.6% (32K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the French Defense: Chigorin Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the French Defense: Chigorin Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 53.5% in Blitz (260K games) against 52.1% in Rapid (39K games).
How sharp is the French Defense: Chigorin Variation?
The French Defense: Chigorin Variation has a sharpness score of 95.6 (very decisive), meaning 95.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
What is the French Defense: Chigorin Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 43.7%, draws 4.6% and loses 51.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.0%. It rests on 7.1K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the French Defense: Chigorin Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 47.4%, draws 2.9% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 7.3K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the French Defense: Chigorin Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 48.2%, draws 2.6% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the French Defense: Chigorin Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 49.7%, draws 2.8% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 31K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the French Defense: Chigorin Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 50.2%, draws 3.4% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 70K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the French Defense: Chigorin Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 50.6%, draws 4.2% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 116K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the French Defense: Chigorin Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 51.6%, draws 4.9% and loses 43.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.0%. It rests on 137K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the French Defense: Chigorin Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 52.9%, draws 5.2% and loses 42.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.5%. It rests on 131K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the French Defense: Chigorin Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 55.7%, draws 5.8% and loses 38.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.6%. It rests on 32K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the French Defense: Chigorin Variation win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, White wins 45.8%, draws 1.3% and loses 52.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.5%. It rests on 2.7K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Chigorin Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 52.4%, draws 3.4% and loses 44.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.1%. It rests on 242K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Chigorin Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 50.8%, draws 5.3% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.5%. It rests on 260K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Chigorin Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 49.2%, draws 5.8% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.1%. It rests on 39K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Chigorin Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 47.4%, draws 7.0% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games.
Is the French Defense: Chigorin Variation a good opening?
The French Defense: Chigorin Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 51.4% of its games and loses 44.1%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.