French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System
215K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
49.2%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.4%.
Measured over 215K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 5.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 215K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 215K
- Best context
- 56.6% at 1000-1199 Bullet
- Worst context
- 46.5% at 2500+ Blitz
- Average game length
- 35 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 94.4%
- Draws
- 5.6%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 56.9% at 0-999, 48.8% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 59.5% expected score (324 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (387 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.7% expected score (168 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 56.6% expected score (1,243 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (956 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (300 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (2,549 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (2,753 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (738 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 44.2% expected score (24 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 62.9% expected score (14 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (5,271 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (8,289 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (2,013 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.5% expected score (111 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 36.5% expected score (17 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (8,623 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (18,272 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (4,510 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 51.2% expected score (293 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 38.6% expected score (16 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (13,597 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (34,383 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (7,347 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.1% expected score (492 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (15,002 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (35,727 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (6,882 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 47.0% expected score (233 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (20 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (16,255 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (18,422 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (2,627 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 44.5% expected score (62 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (4,641 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (1,991 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 44.4% expected score (213 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 56.7% expected score (43 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System scores 49.2% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.1% and 49.4% — from 215K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 215K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System win rate?
Playing the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Black wins 46.4%, draws 5.6% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 215K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System perform best?
The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System performs best for Black at 1000-1199, with an Expected Score of 55.1% (2.5K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 49.2% in Blitz (121K games) against 48.4% in Rapid (25K games).
How sharp is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System?
The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System has a sharpness score of 94.4 (decisive), meaning 94.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 54.3%, draws 3.2% and loses 42.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.9%. It rests on 882 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 53.6%, draws 2.9% and loses 43.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.1%. It rests on 2.5K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 51.3%, draws 2.5% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 6.1K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 48.5%, draws 3.7% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 16K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 47.2%, draws 4.3% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 32K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 47.1%, draws 5.2% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 56K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 45.9%, draws 6.1% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 58K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 44.0%, draws 7.1% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 37K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 41.2%, draws 11.9% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 6.9K Lichess games, which average 44 moves.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 47.8%, draws 3.9% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 68K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 46.1%, draws 6.1% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 121K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 44.6%, draws 7.5% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 25K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 42.6%, draws 11.2% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games.
Is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System a good opening?
The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.4% of its games and loses 48.0%. It performs best at 1000-1199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.