French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation
492K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
52.5%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.6%.
Measured over 492K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 4.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 492K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 492K
- Best context
- 58.2% at 1800-1999 Classical
- Worst context
- 51.0% at 2000-2199 Bullet
- Average game length
- 34 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.7%
- Draws
- 4.3%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 56.5% at 0-999, 58.6% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (1,076 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (3,564 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (1,579 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 66.0% expected score (11 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (2,363 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (6,259 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 58.0% expected score (3,036 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 56.6% expected score (44 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 46.8% expected score (30 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (4,676 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (11,508 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 56.8% expected score (5,170 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (187 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 55.6% expected score (123 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (8,794 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (23,162 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.7% expected score (8,885 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 57.8% expected score (483 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 53.5% expected score (115 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (14,310 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (41,304 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 54.9% expected score (14,726 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.7% expected score (1,006 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 52.4% expected score (61 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (21,215 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (66,952 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (19,049 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 58.2% expected score (1,228 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 69.6% expected score (19 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (25,592 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (73,285 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (12,603 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 56.6% expected score (455 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 31.1% expected score (17 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (31,459 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (60,638 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.3% expected score (4,899 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 51.8% expected score (82 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (13,394 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.9% expected score (8,582 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 63.6% expected score (246 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 63.8% expected score (13 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation scores 52.5% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 52.3% and 52.6% — from 492K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 492K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation win rate?
Playing the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation, White wins 50.3%, draws 4.3% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 492K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation perform best?
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation performs best for White at 1000-1199, with an Expected Score of 55.6% (12K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 52.0% in Blitz (295K games) against 54.5% in Rapid (70K games).
How sharp is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation?
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation has a sharpness score of 95.7 (very decisive), meaning 95.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 52.0%, draws 3.7% and loses 44.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 6.2K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 54.0%, draws 3.3% and loses 42.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.6%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 52.5%, draws 3.0% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.0%. It rests on 22K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 51.9%, draws 3.0% and loses 45.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 41K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 50.9%, draws 3.6% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 71K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 50.1%, draws 4.0% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.1%. It rests on 109K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 49.1%, draws 4.4% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 112K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 49.3%, draws 5.4% and loses 45.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 97K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 52.0%, draws 6.5% and loses 41.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.3%. It rests on 22K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, White wins 52.4%, draws 1.5% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 377 Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 50.7%, draws 3.0% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 123K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 49.7%, draws 4.6% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 295K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 52.0%, draws 5.0% and loses 43.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.5%. It rests on 70K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 53.1%, draws 6.9% and loses 40.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.5%. It rests on 3.5K Lichess games.
Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation a good opening?
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 50.3% of its games and loses 45.4%. It performs best at 1000-1199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.