French Defense: Steinitz Variation
384K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
50.8%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.0%.
Measured over 384K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 5.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 384K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 384K
- Best context
- 54.9% at 1200-1399 Bullet
- Worst context
- 44.7% at 2500+ Blitz
- Average game length
- 35 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 94.8%
- Draws
- 5.2%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 49.4% at 0-999, 37.0% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 58.5% expected score (210 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (136 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 42.6% expected score (46 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (1,032 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (682 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (138 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (31 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.9% expected score (3,333 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (2,744 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (481 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (12 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (136 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (8,661 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (9,925 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (1,755 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 41.0% expected score (54 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 38.6% expected score (99 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (19,557 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (28,332 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.4% expected score (4,942 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 56.2% expected score (307 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 52.2% expected score (66 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (34,617 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (59,905 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (10,131 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.6% expected score (557 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 39.4% expected score (41 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (44,888 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (55,004 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (9,328 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 47.8% expected score (221 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 38.3% expected score (7 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (39,353 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.1% expected score (25,447 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (2,515 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 39.4% expected score (64 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.5% expected score (14,582 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (3,984 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (729 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 28.3% expected score (49 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Steinitz Variation scores 50.8% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.7% and 51.0% — from 384K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 384K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the French Defense: Steinitz Variation win rate?
Playing the French Defense: Steinitz Variation, Black wins 48.2%, draws 5.2% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 384K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the French Defense: Steinitz Variation perform best?
The French Defense: Steinitz Variation performs best for Black at 1200-1399, with an Expected Score of 54.4% (6.6K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the French Defense: Steinitz Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the French Defense: Steinitz Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 50.9% in Blitz (186K games) against 51.1% in Rapid (30K games).
How sharp is the French Defense: Steinitz Variation?
The French Defense: Steinitz Variation has a sharpness score of 94.8 (decisive), meaning 94.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
What is the French Defense: Steinitz Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 52.0%, draws 1.4% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 392 Lichess games, which average 25 moves.
What is the French Defense: Steinitz Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 51.1%, draws 2.0% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.1%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the French Defense: Steinitz Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 53.4%, draws 1.8% and loses 44.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.4%. It rests on 6.6K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the French Defense: Steinitz Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 52.0%, draws 2.4% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 21K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the French Defense: Steinitz Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 51.6%, draws 3.0% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 53K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the French Defense: Steinitz Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 50.3%, draws 3.6% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.1%. It rests on 105K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the French Defense: Steinitz Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 48.5%, draws 4.2% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 109K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the French Defense: Steinitz Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 45.3%, draws 5.1% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 67K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the French Defense: Steinitz Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 30.1%, draws 30.2% and loses 39.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.3%. It rests on 19K Lichess games, which average 46 moves.
What is the French Defense: Steinitz Variation win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, Black wins 46.5%, draws 0.6% and loses 52.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.8%. It rests on 387 Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Steinitz Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 48.3%, draws 4.9% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 166K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Steinitz Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 48.3%, draws 5.2% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 186K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Steinitz Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 47.7%, draws 6.8% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 30K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Steinitz Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 44.5%, draws 9.5% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games.
Is the French Defense: Steinitz Variation a good opening?
The French Defense: Steinitz Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 48.2% of its games and loses 46.6%. It performs best at 1200-1399. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.