French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Guimard Defense, Main Line
63K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
50.3%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 50.6%.
Measured over 63K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 5.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 63K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 63K
- Best context
- 53.9% at 2000-2199 Blitz
- Worst context
- 43.6% at 1400-1599 Blitz
- Average game length
- 36 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 94.1%
- Draws
- 5.9%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 50.2% at 0-999, 43.5% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 43.8% expected score (70 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (165 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (93 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 43.4% expected score (127 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (216 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 43.1% expected score (92 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 40.4% expected score (186 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 44.9% expected score (342 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.8% expected score (133 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 86.4% expected score (4 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 42.3% expected score (264 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 43.6% expected score (647 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 41.4% expected score (271 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 34.3% expected score (24 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (525 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (1,365 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 41.6% expected score (391 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 47.0% expected score (48 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (1,200 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (4,261 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (888 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 45.3% expected score (83 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (2,849 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (11,886 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.1% expected score (1,472 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.7% expected score (76 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (5,984 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (20,966 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (1,430 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 36.2% expected score (31 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (3,829 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.5% expected score (3,362 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 37.2% expected score (80 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Guimard Defense, Main Line scores 50.3% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.0% and 50.6% — from 63K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 63K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Guimard Defense, Main Line win rate?
Playing the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Guimard Defense, Main Line, Black wins 47.3%, draws 5.9% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 63K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Guimard Defense, Main Line perform best?
The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Guimard Defense, Main Line performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 53.4% (16K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Guimard Defense, Main Line better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Guimard Defense, Main Line scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 50.4% in Blitz (43K games) against 47.2% in Rapid (4.8K games).
How sharp is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Guimard Defense, Main Line?
The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Guimard Defense, Main Line has a sharpness score of 94.1 (decisive), meaning 94.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Guimard Defense, Main Line win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 50.2%, draws 2.6% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 328 Lichess games, which average 25 moves.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Guimard Defense, Main Line win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 44.9%, draws 2.2% and loses 52.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.0%. It rests on 438 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Guimard Defense, Main Line win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 42.4%, draws 2.2% and loses 55.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.5%. It rests on 669 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Guimard Defense, Main Line win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 41.2%, draws 3.0% and loses 55.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.7%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Guimard Defense, Main Line win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 45.5%, draws 3.4% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 2.3K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Guimard Defense, Main Line win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 49.6%, draws 4.3% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 6.4K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Guimard Defense, Main Line win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 50.8%, draws 5.1% and loses 44.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 16K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Guimard Defense, Main Line win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 46.6%, draws 6.6% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 28K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Guimard Defense, Main Line win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 42.6%, draws 8.1% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 7.3K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Guimard Defense, Main Line win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 48.8%, draws 4.2% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 15K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Guimard Defense, Main Line win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 47.2%, draws 6.3% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 43K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Guimard Defense, Main Line win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 43.9%, draws 6.7% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 4.8K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Guimard Defense, Main Line win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 40.6%, draws 8.6% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.9%. It rests on 273 Lichess games.
Is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Guimard Defense, Main Line a good opening?
The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Guimard Defense, Main Line is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 47.3% of its games and loses 46.8%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.