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French Defense: Steiner Variation

1.9M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

52.4%

45%60%
Floor52.4%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 1.9M games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 4.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 1.9M games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
1.9M
Best context
59.3% at 2500+ Blitz
Worst context
37.8% at 1200-1399 UltraBullet
Average game length
34 moves
Games that end decisively
96.0%
Draws
4.0%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 8.2% · Bullet best · UltraBullet worst

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 46.6% at 0-999, 51.7% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 42.8% expected score (47 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (6,850 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (15,269 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (6,636 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 47.3% expected score (73 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 39.2% expected score (128 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (16,525 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (28,874 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (10,798 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 48.2% expected score (270 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 37.8% expected score (502 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (39,645 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (57,446 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (19,146 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.8% expected score (790 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 43.3% expected score (970 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (84,921 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (116,404 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (34,750 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.3% expected score (1,947 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 43.4% expected score (1,596 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (136,570 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (213,279 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (55,535 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.1% expected score (3,089 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 42.2% expected score (840 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (185,241 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (272,308 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (64,297 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 54.1% expected score (2,785 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 53.0% expected score (184 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (178,091 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (170,322 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (35,742 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 54.1% expected score (798 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 57.0% expected score (106 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (109,423 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.9% expected score (47,149 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.4% expected score (5,652 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 57.4% expected score (107 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.0% expected score (18,170 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 59.3% expected score (1,671 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 67.2% expected score (121 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Knight Variation
48.3%
French Defense: Exchange Variation
47.7%
French Defense: Normal Variation
50.3%
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Queen's Knight
48.5%
Analyze French Defense: Steiner Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Steiner Variation scores 52.4% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 52.4% and 52.5% — from 1.9M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
1.9M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Steiner Variation win rate?

Playing the French Defense: Steiner Variation, White wins 50.4%, draws 4.0% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 1.9M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Steiner Variation perform best?

The French Defense: Steiner Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 55.4% (20K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the French Defense: Steiner Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the French Defense: Steiner Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 52.8% in Blitz (923K games) against 52.6% in Rapid (233K games).

How sharp is the French Defense: Steiner Variation?

The French Defense: Steiner Variation has a sharpness score of 96.0 (very decisive), meaning 96.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the French Defense: Steiner Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 45.9%, draws 3.9% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 29K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the French Defense: Steiner Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 49.5%, draws 3.1% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 57K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the French Defense: Steiner Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 49.8%, draws 3.1% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 118K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the French Defense: Steiner Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 50.3%, draws 3.1% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 239K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the French Defense: Steiner Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 50.3%, draws 3.6% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.1%. It rests on 410K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the French Defense: Steiner Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 50.5%, draws 4.1% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 525K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the French Defense: Steiner Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 50.7%, draws 4.7% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 385K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the French Defense: Steiner Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 51.1%, draws 5.4% and loses 43.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 162K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the French Defense: Steiner Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 52.1%, draws 6.7% and loses 41.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.4%. It rests on 20K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the French Defense: Steiner Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 42.4%, draws 1.3% and loses 56.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.1%. It rests on 4.4K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Steiner Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 50.6%, draws 3.0% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.1%. It rests on 775K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Steiner Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 50.5%, draws 4.5% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 923K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Steiner Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 49.9%, draws 5.3% and loses 44.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 233K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Steiner Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 49.1%, draws 6.2% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 9.9K Lichess games.

Is the French Defense: Steiner Variation a good opening?

The French Defense: Steiner Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 50.4% of its games and loses 45.6%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.