60K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation has a 53.2% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 52.9% and 53.5%), based on 60K Lichess games.
Improves with rating: 20% → 43%
Best in Bullet (53%), worst in UltraBullet (33%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation has a 44.3% (90% CI: 44.0%-44.7%) win rate for white, based on 60K rated games from Lichess.
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 48.9% win rate for white (5.8K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Rapid (45.7%) outperforms Classical (45.4%) by 0.3%. Choose your time control wisely.
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation has a sharpness score of 95.0 (very decisive), meaning 95.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 45.1%-53.9%) win rate for white, based on 343 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation has a 41.4% (90% CI: 39.5%-43.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation has a 41.8% (90% CI: 40.9%-42.7%) win rate for white, based on 8.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation has a 42.6% (90% CI: 42.0%-43.2%) win rate for white, based on 19K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation has a 45.7% (90% CI: 45.2%-46.2%) win rate for white, based on 24K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 47.9%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 5.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 8.3% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation has a 43.3% (90% CI: 42.6%-43.9%) win rate for white (17K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.
In Blitz games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation has a 44.7% (90% CI: 44.2%-45.1%) win rate for white (39K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.
In Rapid games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation has a 45.7% (90% CI: 44.4%-47.0%) win rate for white (4.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.6%.
In Classical games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation has a 45.4% (90% CI: 40.1%-50.8%) win rate for white (233 Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.7%.
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation is slightly favors black with a 44.3% (90% CI: 44.0%-44.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.