French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation
60K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
53.2%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 53.5%.
Measured over 60K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 5.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 60K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 60K
- Best context
- 58.7% at 1600-1799 Bullet
- Worst context
- 43.7% at 2500+ Blitz
- Average game length
- 35 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.0%
- Draws
- 5.0%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 30.0% at 0-999, 40.7% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 74.2% expected score (13 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 56.4% expected score (30 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 59.7% expected score (14 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 62.0% expected score (11 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 58.6% expected score (133 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (158 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 32.5% expected score (44 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 18.5% expected score (8 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 58.7% expected score (624 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 56.6% expected score (1,168 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 57.2% expected score (123 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.2% expected score (21 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 57.3% expected score (1,948 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 56.1% expected score (5,712 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 55.0% expected score (623 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 60.7% expected score (73 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 57.8% expected score (3,837 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (14,101 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (1,465 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 49.5% expected score (91 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (7,232 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (15,351 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (1,505 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 40.7% expected score (36 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (3,624 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.7% expected score (2,021 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 38.1% expected score (191 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation scores 53.2% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 52.9% and 53.5% — from 60K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 60K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation win rate?
Playing the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation, Black wins 50.7%, draws 5.0% and loses 44.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 60K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation perform best?
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation performs best for Black at 1600-1799, with an Expected Score of 57.3% (1.9K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 52.9% in Blitz (39K games) against 50.0% in Rapid (4.0K games).
How sharp is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation?
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation has a sharpness score of 95.0 (very decisive), meaning 95.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 46.9%, draws 3.6% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 343 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 55.9%, draws 2.8% and loses 41.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.3%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 54.4%, draws 3.8% and loses 41.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.3%. It rests on 8.4K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 53.0%, draws 4.4% and loses 42.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.2%. It rests on 19K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 49.1%, draws 5.2% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 24K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 42.7%, draws 8.3% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 5.8K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 52.7%, draws 4.1% and loses 43.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.7%. It rests on 17K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 50.4%, draws 5.0% and loses 44.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 39K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 45.7%, draws 8.6% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 4.0K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 45.8%, draws 8.7% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 233 Lichess games.
Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation a good opening?
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Poisoned Pawn Variation is good for Black. Across all ratings, Black wins 50.7% of its games and loses 44.3%. It performs best at 1600-1799. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.