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French Defense: Classical Variation, Rubinstein Variation

8.5K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

55.7%

45%60%
Floor54.9%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 56.6%.

Measured over 8.5K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 5.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 8.5K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
8.5K
Best context
60.7% at 2200-2499 Blitz
Worst context
52.7% at 1600-1799 Blitz
Average game length
37 moves
Games that end decisively
94.4%
Draws
5.6%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 50.0%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999———
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (20 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (9 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (75 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (50 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 64.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (205 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (159 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 65.0% expected score (32 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (219 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (637 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (105 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (341 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (1,347 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 55.6% expected score (231 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 55.8% expected score (16 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (622 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (1,647 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.7% expected score (201 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 56.8% expected score (525 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 60.7% expected score (1,562 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 61.3% expected score (140 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (189 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.2% expected score (124 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 36.7% expected score (6 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Knight Variation
48.3%
French Defense: Exchange Variation
47.7%
French Defense: Normal Variation
50.3%
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Queen's Knight
48.5%
Analyze French Defense: Classical Variation, Rubinstein Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Classical Variation, Rubinstein Variation scores 55.7% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 54.9% and 56.6% — from 8.5K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
8.5K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Rubinstein Variation win rate?

Playing the French Defense: Classical Variation, Rubinstein Variation, White wins 52.9%, draws 5.6% and loses 41.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.7%. It rests on 8.5K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Classical Variation, Rubinstein Variation perform best?

The French Defense: Classical Variation, Rubinstein Variation performs best for White at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 59.8% (2.2K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Rubinstein Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the French Defense: Classical Variation, Rubinstein Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 56.1% in Blitz (5.5K games) against 55.8% in Rapid (729 games).

How sharp is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Rubinstein Variation?

The French Defense: Classical Variation, Rubinstein Variation has a sharpness score of 94.4 (decisive), meaning 94.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Rubinstein Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 49.8%, draws 2.6% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 134 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Rubinstein Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 53.6%, draws 3.6% and loses 42.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.4%. It rests on 399 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Rubinstein Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 50.9%, draws 4.3% and loses 44.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 966 Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Rubinstein Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 51.9%, draws 5.4% and loses 42.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.6%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Rubinstein Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 51.8%, draws 5.6% and loses 42.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.6%. It rests on 2.5K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Rubinstein Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 56.4%, draws 6.8% and loses 36.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.8%. It rests on 2.2K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Rubinstein Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 49.5%, draws 8.0% and loses 42.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.5%. It rests on 319 Lichess games, which average 44 moves.

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Rubinstein Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 53.0%, draws 3.5% and loses 43.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.8%. It rests on 2.2K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Rubinstein Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 52.9%, draws 6.3% and loses 40.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.1%. It rests on 5.5K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Rubinstein Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 52.5%, draws 6.5% and loses 41.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.8%. It rests on 729 Lichess games.

Is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Rubinstein Variation a good opening?

The French Defense: Classical Variation, Rubinstein Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 52.9% of its games and loses 41.5%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.