French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Morozevich Variation
75K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
49.3%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.6%.
Measured over 75K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 5.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 75K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 75K
- Best context
- 50.2% at 1800-1999 Bullet
- Worst context
- 45.5% at 2500+ Blitz
- Average game length
- 37 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 94.1%
- Draws
- 5.9%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 64.1% at 0-999, 40.7% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 84.3% expected score (16 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 44.6% expected score (17 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 61.5% expected score (29 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (25 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (93 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (110 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (37 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 62.2% expected score (19 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (400 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (347 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 40.7% expected score (79 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 66.8% expected score (49 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (1,240 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (1,476 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (302 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 51.9% expected score (25 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (83 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (2,705 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (6,582 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.6% expected score (1,080 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 54.3% expected score (81 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 54.3% expected score (22 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (5,104 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (14,941 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (1,642 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 48.3% expected score (85 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 40.9% expected score (15 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (7,835 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (20,259 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (1,283 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 35.4% expected score (36 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (4,916 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (3,445 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 39.5% expected score (103 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Morozevich Variation scores 49.3% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.0% and 49.6% — from 75K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 75K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Morozevich Variation win rate?
Playing the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Morozevich Variation, Black wins 46.4%, draws 5.9% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 75K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Morozevich Variation perform best?
The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Morozevich Variation performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 49.7% (22K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Morozevich Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Morozevich Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 49.3% in Blitz (47K games) against 48.5% in Rapid (4.5K games).
How sharp is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Morozevich Variation?
The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Morozevich Variation has a sharpness score of 94.1 (decisive), meaning 94.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Morozevich Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 49.3%, draws 3.8% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 249 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Morozevich Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 48.1%, draws 2.6% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 852 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Morozevich Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 48.0%, draws 3.2% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 3.1K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Morozevich Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 47.6%, draws 4.3% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Morozevich Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 47.1%, draws 5.2% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 22K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Morozevich Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 46.1%, draws 6.8% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 29K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Morozevich Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 42.9%, draws 7.7% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.8%. It rests on 8.5K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Morozevich Variation win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, Black wins 57.5%, draws 2.3% and loses 40.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.7%. It rests on 194 Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Morozevich Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 47.5%, draws 4.1% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 22K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Morozevich Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 46.0%, draws 6.5% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 47K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Morozevich Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 44.6%, draws 7.7% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 4.5K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Morozevich Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 42.8%, draws 11.5% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 238 Lichess games.
Is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Morozevich Variation a good opening?
The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Morozevich Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.4% of its games and loses 47.8%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.