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French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Morozevich Variation

75K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score49.3%Range (90% confident): 49.0% – 49.6%Based on 75K games
0%49.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 49.0% – 49.6%
Outcome Distribution
46.4%5.9%47.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...Be7
French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Morozevich Variation
Analyzen=75K
Avg Length37 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate5.9%

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Morozevich Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Morozevich Variation has a 49.3% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 49.0% and 49.6%), based on 75K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 8.2% · Bullet best · UltraBullet worst

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 63% → 43%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 63.0% win rate (39 games)
  • 1000-1199: 53.6% win rate (61 games)
  • 1200-1399: 49.3% win rate (249 games)
  • 1400-1599: 48.1% win rate (852 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.0% win rate (3,092 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.6% win rate (10,531 games)
  • 2000-2199: 47.1% win rate (21,794 games)
  • 2200-2499: 46.1% win rate (29,428 games)
  • 2500+: 42.9% win rate (8,465 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (58%), worst in Classical (43%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 57.5% win rate (194 games)
  • Bullet: 47.5% win rate (22,338 games)
  • Blitz: 46.0% win rate (47,202 games)
  • Rapid: 44.6% win rate (4,539 games)
  • Classical: 42.8% win rate (238 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 84.3% expected score (16 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 44.6% expected score (17 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 61.5% expected score (29 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (25 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (93 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (110 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (37 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 62.2% expected score (19 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (400 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (347 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 40.7% expected score (79 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 66.8% expected score (49 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (1,240 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (1,476 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (302 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 51.9% expected score (25 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (83 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (2,705 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (6,582 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.6% expected score (1,080 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 54.3% expected score (81 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 54.3% expected score (22 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (5,104 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (14,941 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (1,642 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 48.3% expected score (85 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 40.9% expected score (15 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (7,835 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (20,259 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (1,283 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 35.4% expected score (36 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (4,916 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (3,445 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 39.5% expected score (103 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Knight Variation
48.3%
French Defense: Exchange Variation
47.7%
French Defense: Normal Variation
50.3%
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Queen's Knight
48.5%
Analyze French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Morozevich Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Morozevich Variation win rate?

The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Morozevich Variation has a 47.8% (90% CI: 47.5%-48.1%) win rate for white, based on 75K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Morozevich Variation perform best?

The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Morozevich Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 49.4% win rate for white (8.5K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Morozevich Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (48.4%) outperforms UltraBullet (40.2%) by 8.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Morozevich Variation?

The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Morozevich Variation has a sharpness score of 94.1 (decisive), meaning 94.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Morozevich Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Morozevich Variation has a 46.9% (90% CI: 41.7%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 249 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Morozevich Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Morozevich Variation has a 49.3% (90% CI: 46.5%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 852 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Morozevich Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Morozevich Variation has a 48.8% (90% CI: 47.4%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 3.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Morozevich Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Morozevich Variation has a 48.2% (90% CI: 47.4%-49.0%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Morozevich Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Morozevich Variation has a 47.7% (90% CI: 47.1%-48.2%) win rate for white, based on 22K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Morozevich Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Morozevich Variation has a 47.1% (90% CI: 46.6%-47.6%) win rate for white, based on 29K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.8% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Morozevich Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Morozevich Variation has a 49.4% (90% CI: 48.5%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 8.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 7.7% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Morozevich Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Morozevich Variation has a 40.2% (90% CI: 34.5%-46.0%) win rate for white (194 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.3%.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Morozevich Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Morozevich Variation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 47.9%-49.0%) win rate for white (22K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Morozevich Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Morozevich Variation has a 47.5% (90% CI: 47.1%-47.9%) win rate for white (47K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.5%.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Morozevich Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Morozevich Variation has a 47.7% (90% CI: 46.5%-49.0%) win rate for white (4.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.7%.

What is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Morozevich Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Morozevich Variation has a 45.7% (90% CI: 40.5%-51.0%) win rate for white (238 Lichess games). Draw rate is 11.5%.

Is the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Morozevich Variation a good opening?

The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Morozevich Variation is statistically balanced with a 47.8% (90% CI: 47.5%-48.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.