61K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Maróczy-Wallis Variation has a 49.3% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 48.9% and 49.6%), based on 61K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Stable across ratings (~42%)
Best in Bullet (50%), worst in Classical (31%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Maróczy-Wallis Variation has a 48.6% (90% CI: 48.3%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 61K rated games from Lichess.
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Maróczy-Wallis Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 53.0% win rate for white (7.1K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Classical (61.4%) outperforms Bullet (47.3%) by 14.1%. Choose your time control wisely.
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Maróczy-Wallis Variation has a sharpness score of 95.7 (very decisive), meaning 95.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Maróczy-Wallis Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 44.6%-53.1%) win rate for white, based on 374 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Maróczy-Wallis Variation has a 45.2% (90% CI: 43.3%-47.0%) win rate for white, based on 2.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Maróczy-Wallis Variation has a 46.3% (90% CI: 45.4%-47.2%) win rate for white, based on 7.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Maróczy-Wallis Variation has a 47.3% (90% CI: 46.7%-47.8%) win rate for white, based on 21K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Maróczy-Wallis Variation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 48.9%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 22K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Maróczy-Wallis Variation has a 53.0% (90% CI: 52.0%-53.9%) win rate for white, based on 7.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Maróczy-Wallis Variation has a 53.8% (90% CI: 49.7%-57.9%) win rate for white, based on 395 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Maróczy-Wallis Variation has a 47.3% (90% CI: 46.6%-48.0%) win rate for white (15K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.0%.
In Blitz games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Maróczy-Wallis Variation has a 48.6% (90% CI: 48.2%-49.0%) win rate for white (39K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.
In Rapid games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Maróczy-Wallis Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 49.9%-51.9%) win rate for white (7.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.5%.
In Classical games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Maróczy-Wallis Variation has a 61.4% (90% CI: 56.6%-66.1%) win rate for white (281 Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.0%.
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Maróczy-Wallis Variation is statistically balanced with a 48.6% (90% CI: 48.3%-48.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.