French Defense: Winawer Variation, Classical Variation
55K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
50.6%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 50.9%.
Measured over 55K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 55K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 55K
- Best context
- 56.7% at 1600-1799 Bullet
- Worst context
- 42.8% at 2500+ Blitz
- Average game length
- 35 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.2%
- Draws
- 4.8%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 47.2% at 0-999, 41.8% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 88.5% expected score (5 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 42.3% expected score (5 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 58.2% expected score (23 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (20 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 57.4% expected score (12 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 58.8% expected score (141 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (248 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.9% expected score (30 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 56.7% expected score (599 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (1,325 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 57.9% expected score (170 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 58.2% expected score (23 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (1,758 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (6,707 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.5% expected score (679 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (108 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (4,025 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (15,322 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.4% expected score (1,325 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 48.8% expected score (81 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (5,893 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (12,033 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.9% expected score (818 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 44.9% expected score (18 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.4% expected score (2,593 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.8% expected score (1,026 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 38.1% expected score (28 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Classical Variation scores 50.6% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.2% and 50.9% — from 55K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 55K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Classical Variation win rate?
Playing the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Classical Variation, Black wins 48.2%, draws 4.8% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 55K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Classical Variation perform best?
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Classical Variation performs best for Black at 1600-1799, with an Expected Score of 54.6% (2.1K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Classical Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Classical Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 50.6% in Blitz (37K games) against 50.2% in Rapid (3.1K games).
How sharp is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Classical Variation?
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Classical Variation has a sharpness score of 95.2 (very decisive), meaning 95.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Classical Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 52.5%, draws 3.7% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.4%. It rests on 422 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Classical Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 52.9%, draws 3.3% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.6%. It rests on 2.1K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Classical Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 50.8%, draws 3.9% and loses 45.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 9.3K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Classical Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 49.3%, draws 4.8% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 21K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Classical Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 46.4%, draws 5.3% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 19K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Classical Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 40.7%, draws 6.3% and loses 53.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.9%. It rests on 3.6K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Classical Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 48.9%, draws 3.6% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 15K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Classical Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 48.0%, draws 5.2% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 37K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Classical Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 46.9%, draws 6.6% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 3.1K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Classical Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 46.3%, draws 7.0% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 233 Lichess games.
Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Classical Variation a good opening?
The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Classical Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 48.2% of its games and loses 47.0%. It performs best at 1600-1799. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.