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French Defense: Winawer Variation, Classical Variation

55K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score50.6%Range (90% confident): 50.2% – 50.9%Based on 55K games
0%50.6%100%
Range (90% confident): 50.2% – 50.9%
Outcome Distribution
48.2%4.8%47.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
6...Qc7
French Defense: Winawer Variation, Classical Variation
Analyzen=55K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.8%

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Classical Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Classical Variation has a 50.6% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 50.2% and 50.9%), based on 55K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 39% → 41%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 38.5% win rate (5 games)
  • 1000-1199: 48.7% win rate (18 games)
  • 1200-1399: 52.2% win rate (55 games)
  • 1400-1599: 52.5% win rate (422 games)
  • 1600-1799: 52.9% win rate (2,117 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.8% win rate (9,252 games)
  • 2000-2199: 49.3% win rate (20,753 games)
  • 2200-2499: 46.4% win rate (18,762 games)
  • 2500+: 40.7% win rate (3,647 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~49%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 48.9% win rate (15,041 games)
  • Blitz: 48.0% win rate (36,688 games)
  • Rapid: 46.9% win rate (3,069 games)
  • Classical: 46.3% win rate (233 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 88.5% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 42.3% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 58.2% expected score (23 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (20 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 57.4% expected score (12 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 58.8% expected score (141 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (248 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.9% expected score (30 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 56.7% expected score (599 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (1,325 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 57.9% expected score (170 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 58.2% expected score (23 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (1,758 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (6,707 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.5% expected score (679 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (108 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (4,025 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (15,322 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.4% expected score (1,325 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 48.8% expected score (81 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (5,893 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (12,033 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.9% expected score (818 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 44.9% expected score (18 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.4% expected score (2,593 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.8% expected score (1,026 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 38.1% expected score (28 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Knight Variation
48.3%
French Defense: Exchange Variation
47.7%
French Defense: Normal Variation
50.3%
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Queen's Knight
48.5%
Analyze French Defense: Winawer Variation, Classical Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Classical Variation win rate?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Classical Variation has a 47.0% (90% CI: 46.7%-47.4%) win rate for white, based on 55K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Classical Variation perform best?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Classical Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 53.0% win rate for white (3.6K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Classical Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (47.5%) outperforms Classical (46.7%) by 0.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Classical Variation?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Classical Variation has a sharpness score of 95.2 (very decisive), meaning 95.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Classical Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Classical Variation has a 43.8% (90% CI: 39.9%-47.8%) win rate for white, based on 422 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Classical Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Classical Variation has a 43.8% (90% CI: 42.0%-45.6%) win rate for white, based on 2.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Classical Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Classical Variation has a 45.3% (90% CI: 44.5%-46.2%) win rate for white, based on 9.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Classical Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Classical Variation has a 46.0% (90% CI: 45.4%-46.5%) win rate for white, based on 21K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Classical Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Classical Variation has a 48.2% (90% CI: 47.6%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 19K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Classical Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Classical Variation has a 53.0% (90% CI: 51.6%-54.3%) win rate for white, based on 3.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 6.3% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Classical Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Classical Variation has a 47.5% (90% CI: 46.8%-48.2%) win rate for white (15K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Classical Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Classical Variation has a 46.8% (90% CI: 46.4%-47.3%) win rate for white (37K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.2%.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Classical Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Classical Variation has a 46.5% (90% CI: 45.0%-48.0%) win rate for white (3.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.6%.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Classical Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Classical Variation has a 46.7% (90% CI: 41.4%-52.1%) win rate for white (233 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.0%.

Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Classical Variation a good opening?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Classical Variation is statistically balanced with a 47.0% (90% CI: 46.7%-47.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.