French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Bernstein Variation
2.4K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
47.9%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.6%.
Measured over 2.4K games at this level and clock.
White comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for White
Draw 4.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 2.4K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 2.4K
- Best context
- not measured yet
- Average game length
- 35 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.9%
- Draws
- 4.1%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 31.9% at 0-999, 47.8% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | ||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 62.2% expected score (15 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 43.6% expected score (14 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 64.3% expected score (9 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (42 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.3% expected score (16 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (18 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (75 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 65.6% expected score (21 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (51 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (167 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 37.6% expected score (51 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 44.8% expected score (114 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (404 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (87 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (214 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (489 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (62 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (205 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (231 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.9% expected score (18 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 37.2% expected score (53 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 58.3% expected score (41 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Bernstein Variation scores 47.9% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 46.3% and 49.6% — from 2.4K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 2.4K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games before we will say where it stops working. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Bernstein Variation win rate?
The French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Bernstein Variation scores 47.9% (range, 90% confident: 46.3% – 49.6%) for White, based on 2.4K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Bernstein Variation perform best?
The French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Bernstein Variation performs best at 2000-2199, where it scores 48.5% for White (765 games). It tends to score less at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Is the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Bernstein Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, Blitz (48.7%) outperforms Rapid (45.3%). Choose your time control wisely.
How sharp is the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Bernstein Variation?
The French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Bernstein Variation has a sharpness score of 95.9 (very decisive), meaning 95.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
What is the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Bernstein Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Bernstein Variation scores 52.6% (range, 90% confident: 45.0% – 60.1%) for White, based on 117 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.
What is the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Bernstein Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Bernstein Variation scores 46.9% (range, 90% confident: 41.9% – 51.9%) for White, based on 270 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.
What is the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Bernstein Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Bernstein Variation scores 45.7% (range, 90% confident: 42.4% – 49.0%) for White, based on 610 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.
What is the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Bernstein Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Bernstein Variation scores 48.5% (range, 90% confident: 45.6% – 51.5%) for White, based on 765 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.
What is the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Bernstein Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Bernstein Variation scores 48.8% (range, 90% confident: 45.0% – 52.7%) for White, based on 454 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.9% draw rate.
What is the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Bernstein Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet games, the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Bernstein Variation scores 47.3% (range, 90% confident: 44.1% – 50.4%) for White (669 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.
What is the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Bernstein Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz games, the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Bernstein Variation scores 48.7% (range, 90% confident: 46.5% – 50.8%) for White (1.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.
What is the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Bernstein Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid games, the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Bernstein Variation scores 45.3% (range, 90% confident: 40.3% – 50.2%) for White (271 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.7%.
Is the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Bernstein Variation a good opening?
The French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Bernstein Variation is hard work for White — it favours Black with a 45.9% (range, 90% confident: 44.2% – 47.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.