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French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation

201K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

50.6%

45%55%
Floor50.4%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 50.8%.

Measured over 201K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 7.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 201K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
201K
Best context
53.5% at 1600-1799 Bullet
Worst context
43.9% at 2200-2499 Rapid
Average game length
38 moves
Games that end decisively
92.3%
Draws
7.7%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 48.8% at 0-999, 45.9% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 55.3% expected score (217 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (364 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 56.4% expected score (125 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (492 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (731 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (303 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 39.7% expected score (13 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (1,126 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (1,469 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.6% expected score (726 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (25 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 53.5% expected score (13 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (2,231 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (4,798 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (1,641 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 64.6% expected score (91 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (5,375 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (11,315 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (3,658 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 51.4% expected score (285 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (10,060 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (23,376 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (6,191 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.6% expected score (591 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 86.4% expected score (4 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (14,090 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (33,708 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (6,623 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 42.1% expected score (385 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (23,855 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (26,970 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.9% expected score (3,077 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 42.9% expected score (83 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (18 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (12,711 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (3,880 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 42.0% expected score (129 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Knight Variation
48.3%
French Defense: Exchange Variation
47.7%
French Defense: Normal Variation
50.3%
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Queen's Knight
48.5%
Analyze French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation scores 50.6% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.4% and 50.8% — from 201K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
201K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation win rate?

Playing the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation, Black wins 46.8%, draws 7.7% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 201K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation perform best?

The French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 54.5% (707 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 49.8% in Blitz (107K games) against 49.5% in Rapid (22K games).

How sharp is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation?

The French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation has a sharpness score of 92.3 (decisive), meaning 92.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 53.1%, draws 2.6% and loses 44.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.5%. It rests on 707 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 51.0%, draws 3.1% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 47.6%, draws 3.3% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 3.4K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 49.5%, draws 4.4% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 8.8K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 49.2%, draws 5.3% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 21K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 48.4%, draws 6.3% and loses 45.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 40K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 47.0%, draws 7.9% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 55K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 45.1%, draws 8.9% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 54K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 42.4%, draws 12.5% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 45 moves.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 49.1%, draws 6.3% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 70K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 45.6%, draws 8.3% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 107K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 45.2%, draws 8.6% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 22K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 43.3%, draws 10.3% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games.

Is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation a good opening?

The French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.8% of its games and loses 45.6%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.