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French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation

201K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score50.6%Range (90% confident): 50.4% – 50.8%Based on 201K games
0%50.6%100%
Range (90% confident): 50.4% – 50.8%
Outcome Distribution
46.8%7.7%45.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
5...Bc6
French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation
Analyzen=201K
Avg Length38 moves
Sharpness92%
Draw Rate7.7%

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation has a 50.6% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 50.4% and 50.8%), based on 201K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 53% → 42%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 53.1% win rate (707 games)
  • 1000-1199: 51.0% win rate (1,543 games)
  • 1200-1399: 47.6% win rate (3,352 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.5% win rate (8,774 games)
  • 1600-1799: 49.2% win rate (20,637 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.4% win rate (40,221 games)
  • 2000-2199: 47.0% win rate (54,810 games)
  • 2200-2499: 45.1% win rate (53,989 games)
  • 2500+: 42.4% win rate (16,739 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (49%), worst in Classical (43%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 47.0% win rate (57 games)
  • Bullet: 49.1% win rate (70,157 games)
  • Blitz: 45.6% win rate (106,611 games)
  • Rapid: 45.2% win rate (22,473 games)
  • Classical: 43.3% win rate (1,474 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 55.3% expected score (217 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (364 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 56.4% expected score (125 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (492 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (731 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (303 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 39.7% expected score (13 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (1,126 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (1,469 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.6% expected score (726 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (25 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 53.5% expected score (13 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (2,231 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (4,798 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (1,641 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 64.6% expected score (91 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (5,375 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (11,315 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (3,658 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 51.4% expected score (285 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (10,060 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (23,376 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (6,191 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.6% expected score (591 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 86.4% expected score (4 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (14,090 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (33,708 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (6,623 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 42.1% expected score (385 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (23,855 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (26,970 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.9% expected score (3,077 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 42.9% expected score (83 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (18 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (12,711 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (3,880 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 42.0% expected score (129 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Knight Variation
48.3%
French Defense: Exchange Variation
47.7%
French Defense: Normal Variation
50.3%
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Queen's Knight
48.5%
Analyze French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation win rate?

The French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation has a 45.6% (90% CI: 45.4%-45.8%) win rate for white, based on 201K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation perform best?

The French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 49.0% win rate for white (3.4K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (46.1%) outperforms UltraBullet (48.7%) by -2.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation?

The French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation has a sharpness score of 92.3 (decisive), meaning 92.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation has a 44.2% (90% CI: 41.2%-47.3%) win rate for white, based on 707 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation has a 45.9% (90% CI: 43.8%-48.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation has a 49.0% (90% CI: 47.6%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 3.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation has a 46.1% (90% CI: 45.2%-47.0%) win rate for white, based on 8.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation has a 45.5% (90% CI: 45.0%-46.1%) win rate for white, based on 21K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation has a 45.3% (90% CI: 44.9%-45.7%) win rate for white, based on 40K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 6.3% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation has a 45.2% (90% CI: 44.8%-45.5%) win rate for white, based on 55K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 7.9% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation has a 46.0% (90% CI: 45.7%-46.4%) win rate for white, based on 54K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 8.9% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation has a 45.2% (90% CI: 44.6%-45.8%) win rate for white, based on 17K Lichess games. Average game length is 45 moves with a 12.5% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation has a 44.5% (90% CI: 44.2%-44.8%) win rate for white (70K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.3%.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation has a 46.1% (90% CI: 45.9%-46.4%) win rate for white (107K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.3%.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation has a 46.2% (90% CI: 45.6%-46.7%) win rate for white (22K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.6%.

What is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation has a 46.4% (90% CI: 44.3%-48.5%) win rate for white (1.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.3%.

Is the French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation a good opening?

The French Defense: Rubinstein Variation, Fort Knox Variation is statistically balanced with a 45.6% (90% CI: 45.4%-45.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.