Alekhine Defense

54 variations · 20M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

4.c4

Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · Overall

49.0%

45%55%

Floor49.0%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 20M games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

47.0%3.9%49.1%

Win

Draw

Loss

Draw 3.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 20M games

Rank among the families Black can choose here: #19 of 62
Games in this context: 20M
Best context: 59.7% at 0-999 UltraBullet
Worst context: 36.5% at 2200-2499 Classical
Variations measured: 54
Average game length: 34 moves

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

What to play from here

Black · Overall

#1Alekhine Defense: O'Sullivan GambitBest here

1.e4 Nf6 2.e5 Nd5 3.d4 b5

Floor 55.0% · 109K games

55.3%

#2Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Fianchetto Variation

1.e4 Nf6 2.e5 Nd5 3.d4 d6 4.c4 Nb6 5.f4 g6

Floor 52.5% · 161K games

52.7%

#3Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Geschev Gambit

1.e4 Nf6 2.Nc3 d5 3.exd5 c6

Floor 50.6% · 936K games

50.7%

#4Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Trifunovic Variation

1.e4 Nf6 2.e5 Nd5 3.d4 d6 4.c4 Nb6 5.f4 Bf5

Floor 50.6% · 96K games

50.9%

#5Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Cambridge Gambit

1.e4 Nf6 2.e5 Nd5 3.d4 d6 4.c4 Nb6 5.f4 g5

Floor 50.5% · 17K games

51.1%

#6Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation

1.e4 Nf6 2.Nc3 d5

Floor 50.4% · 2.9M games

50.5%

#7Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation

1.e4 Nf6 2.e5 Nd5 3.d4 d6 4.Nf3 Nb6

Floor 49.9% · 231K games

50.1%

#8Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Flohr Variation

1.e4 Nf6 2.e5 Nd5 3.d4 d6 4.Nf3 Bg4 5.Be2 c6

Floor 49.2% · 16K games

49.8%

#9Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Korchnoi Variation

1.e4 Nf6 2.e5 Nd5 3.d4 d6 4.c4 Nb6 5.f4 dxe5 6.fxe5 Bf5 7.Nc3 e6 8.Nf3 Be7 9.Be2 O-O 10.O-O f6

Floor 49.2% · 399 games

53.3%

#10Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation

1.e4 Nf6 2.e5 Nd5 3.d4 d6 4.Nf3 g6

Floor 49.1% · 142K games

49.3%

These are the moves players actually choose from here, ranked by how they score. A higher score is a better bet on the numbers alone — familiarity and playstyle still matter.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 50.8% at 0-999, 40.4% at 2500+.

Rating	UB	Bulle	Blitz	Rapid	Class
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 59.7% expected score (2,066 games)
0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (258,102 games)
0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (663,597 games)
0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.7% expected score (448,371 games)
0-999 rating, Classical: 48.3% expected score (4,653 games)
1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 56.0% expected score (7,423 games)
1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (367,739 games)
1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (577,819 games)
1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 44.8% expected score (299,500 games)
1000-1199 rating, Classical: 43.0% expected score (12,622 games)
1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 54.7% expected score (28,070 games)
1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (614,984 games)
1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (741,076 games)
1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.2% expected score (255,975 games)
1200-1399 rating, Classical: 42.9% expected score (18,952 games)
1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 55.1% expected score (55,628 games)
1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (970,417 games)
1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (1,032,005 games)
1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (262,751 games)
1400-1599 rating, Classical: 42.9% expected score (21,695 games)
1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.7% expected score (65,049 games)
1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (1,389,345 games)
1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (1,431,231 games)
1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (286,470 games)
1600-1799 rating, Classical: 48.5% expected score (19,462 games)
1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 46.9% expected score (47,399 games)
1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (1,801,720 games)
1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (1,920,822 games)
1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.6% expected score (294,841 games)
1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.7% expected score (14,671 games)
2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 40.9% expected score (15,827 games)
2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (1,770,923 games)
2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (1,516,761 games)
2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (175,439 games)
2000-2199 rating, Classical: 46.7% expected score (4,227 games)
2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (3,473 games)
2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (1,373,334 games)
2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (623,843 games)
2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (52,756 games)
2200-2499 rating, Classical: 36.5% expected score (775 games)
2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 39.8% expected score (332 games)
2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.5% expected score (351,865 games)
2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.6% expected score (49,333 games)
2500+ rating, Rapid: 36.9% expected score (1,591 games)
2500+ rating, Classical: 36.2% expected score (67 games)

54 variations · ranked by floor

Floor — the worst score you would still get, 90% confident.

Alekhine Defense: Hunt Variation38K games

Winning56.4%Floor 56.0%

Alekhine Defense: O'Sullivan Gambit109K games

Winning55.3%Floor 55.0%

Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack466K games

Winning53.3%Floor 53.2%

Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Fianchetto Variation161K games

Winning52.7%Floor 52.5%

Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Main Line134K games

Balanced52.2%Floor 52.0%

Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Variation16K games

Balanced51.9%Floor 51.3%

Alekhine Defense: Krejcik Variation569K games

Balanced51.3%Floor 51.1%

Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Gambit38K games

Balanced51.6%Floor 51.1%

Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Geschev Gambit936K games

Balanced50.7%Floor 50.6%

Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Trifunovic Variation96K games

Balanced50.9%Floor 50.6%

Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Cambridge Gambit17K games

Balanced51.1%Floor 50.5%

Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation2.9M games

Balanced50.5%Floor 50.4%

Alekhine Defense: Steiner Variation43K games

Balanced50.7%Floor 50.3%

Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation1.2M games

Balanced50.3%Floor 50.2%

Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation231K games

Balanced50.1%Floor 49.9%

Alekhine Defense: Balogh Variation155K games

Balanced49.7%Floor 49.5%

Alekhine Defense: Two Pawns Attack906K games

Balanced49.3%Floor 49.2%

Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Flohr Variation16K games

Balanced49.8%Floor 49.2%

Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Korchnoi Variation399 games

Balanced53.3%Floor 49.2%

Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation142K games

Balanced49.3%Floor 49.1%

Alekhine Defense: Two Pawns Attack, Tate Variation193K games

Balanced49.2%Floor 49.0%

Alekhine Defense: Maróczy Variation1.9M games

Balanced49.0%Floor 49.0%

Alekhine Defense: Welling Variation12K games

Balanced49.7%Floor 48.9%

Alekhine Defense: Two Pawns Attack, Mikenas Variation3.4K games

Balanced50.3%Floor 48.9%

Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation131K games

Balanced49.1%Floor 48.8%

Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Panov Variation24K games

Balanced49.3%Floor 48.7%

Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation1.4M games

Balanced48.4%Floor 48.3%

Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe, Vavra Defense126K games

Balanced48.5%Floor 48.3%

Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Main Line188K games

Balanced48.4%Floor 48.2%

Alekhine Defense: Kmoch Variation13K games

Balanced48.8%Floor 48.1%

Alekhine Defense: Two Pawns Attack, Lasker Variation495K games

Losing47.8%Floor 47.6%

Alekhine Defense5.1M games

Losing47.5%Floor 47.5%

Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen Variation177K games

Losing47.7%Floor 47.5%

Alekhine Defense: Krejcik Variation, Krejcik Gambit81K games

Losing47.7%Floor 47.4%

Alekhine Defense: Brooklyn Variation625K games

Losing47.4%Floor 47.3%

Alekhine Defense: Maróczy Variation230 games

Losing52.6%Floor 47.2%

Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Myers Gambit35K games

Losing47.3%Floor 46.8%

Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation, Karpov Variation696 games

Losing49.5%Floor 46.4%

Alekhine Defense: Sämisch Attack424K games

Losing46.5%Floor 46.4%

Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation50K games

Losing46.8%Floor 46.4%

Alekhine Defense: Buckley Attack1.6K games

Losing48.0%Floor 46.0%

Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe438K games

Losing45.6%Floor 45.4%

Alekhine Defense: Spielmann Gambit29K games

Losing45.8%Floor 45.3%

Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Tartakower Variation788 games

Losing47.4%Floor 44.5%

Alekhine Defense: Hunt Variation, Lasker Simul Gambit58K games

Losing44.3%Floor 43.9%

Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation, Voronezh Variation47K games

Losing43.8%Floor 43.4%

Alekhine Defense: The Squirrel63K games

Losing43.6%Floor 43.3%

Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Vitolins Attack860 games

Losing43.8%Floor 41.0%

Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe, Modern Line2.0K games

Losing42.8%Floor 41.0%

Alekhine Defense: Brooklyn Variation, Everglades Variation320 games

Losing44.6%Floor 40.1%

Every Alekhine Defense variation, by name54

Analyze Alekhine Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Alekhine Defense family scores 49.0% for Black — we are 90% confident it is 49.0% — from 20M Lichess games across 54 variations. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made

Whose games these are: 20M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count: Rated games only — nothing casual.
Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
At least 2 moves played.
A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range: A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything: An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Alekhine Defense win rate?

Across the Alekhine Defense's 54 variations, Black wins 47.0%, draws 3.9% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 20M rated games from Lichess.

How many Alekhine Defense variations are there?

54 Alekhine Defense variations have a page of their own, each broken down by rating and by clock.

At what rating does the Alekhine Defense perform best?

The Alekhine Defense family performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 50.2% (4.1M games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read. Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the Alekhine Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Alekhine Defense scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 49.3% in Blitz (8.6M games) against 47.6% in Rapid (2.1M games).

How sharp is the Alekhine Defense?

Alekhine Defense games are 96.1% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 34 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the Alekhine Defense a good opening family?

The Alekhine Defense family is about level overall. Across its games, Black wins 47.0% and loses 49.1%. Results differ between its 54 variations, so open the one you play for its own figures.