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Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Panov Variation

24K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score50.8%Range (90% confident): 50.3% – 51.4%Based on 24K games
0%50.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 50.3% – 51.4%
Outcome Distribution
48.5%4.5%47.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
5.h3
Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Panov Variation
Analyzen=24K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.5%

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Panov Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Panov Variation has a 50.8% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 50.3% and 51.4%), based on 24K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~53%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 52.9% win rate (211 games)
  • 1000-1199: 52.1% win rate (620 games)
  • 1200-1399: 47.4% win rate (1,372 games)
  • 1400-1599: 48.5% win rate (2,711 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.0% win rate (3,624 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.1% win rate (4,771 games)
  • 2000-2199: 47.9% win rate (5,281 games)
  • 2200-2499: 50.9% win rate (4,417 games)
  • 2500+: 54.8% win rate (1,286 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (51%), worst in Classical (43%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 50.7% win rate (7,520 games)
  • Blitz: 47.9% win rate (13,917 games)
  • Rapid: 46.2% win rate (2,688 games)
  • Classical: 43.4% win rate (168 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 60.1% expected score (73 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (117 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (21 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (201 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (331 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (86 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (395 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (754 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.2% expected score (221 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (800 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (1,459 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (422 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 48.4% expected score (30 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (1,017 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (1,977 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (566 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 41.6% expected score (64 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (1,144 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (2,855 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.9% expected score (727 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 42.5% expected score (45 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (1,373 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (3,443 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (447 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 70.5% expected score (18 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (1,533 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (2,683 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (194 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 61.8% expected score (7 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 58.1% expected score (984 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.4% expected score (298 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 68.2% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Alekhine Defense
50.7%
Variations (5)
Alekhine Defense: Balogh Variation
48.3%
Alekhine Defense: Brooklyn Variation
50.9%
Alekhine Defense: Brooklyn Variation, Everglades Variation
53.3%
Alekhine Defense: Buckley Attack
49.7%
Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation
47.4%
Analyze Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Panov Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Panov Variation win rate?

The Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Panov Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 48.0%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 24K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Panov Variation perform best?

The Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Panov Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 54.8% win rate for white (1.3K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Panov Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (50.7%) outperforms Classical (43.4%) by 7.3%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Panov Variation?

The Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Panov Variation has a sharpness score of 95.5 (very decisive), meaning 95.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Panov Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Panov Variation has a 52.9% (90% CI: 47.3%-58.5%) win rate for white, based on 211 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 1.6% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Panov Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Panov Variation has a 52.1% (90% CI: 48.8%-55.3%) win rate for white, based on 620 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Panov Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Panov Variation has a 47.4% (90% CI: 45.1%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Panov Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Panov Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 47.0%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 2.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Panov Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Panov Variation has a 47.0% (90% CI: 45.7%-48.4%) win rate for white, based on 3.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Panov Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Panov Variation has a 46.1% (90% CI: 45.0%-47.3%) win rate for white, based on 4.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Panov Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Panov Variation has a 47.9% (90% CI: 46.8%-49.0%) win rate for white, based on 5.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Panov Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Panov Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 49.7%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 4.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Panov Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Panov Variation has a 54.8% (90% CI: 52.5%-57.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 44 moves with a 6.3% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Panov Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Panov Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 49.7%-51.6%) win rate for white (7.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.3%.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Panov Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Panov Variation has a 47.9% (90% CI: 47.2%-48.6%) win rate for white (14K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Panov Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Panov Variation has a 46.2% (90% CI: 44.6%-47.8%) win rate for white (2.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.9%.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Panov Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Panov Variation has a 43.4% (90% CI: 37.2%-49.7%) win rate for white (168 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.8%.

Is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Panov Variation a good opening?

The Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Panov Variation is statistically balanced with a 48.5% (90% CI: 48.0%-49.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.