Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Panov Variation
24K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
50.8%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.4%.
Measured over 24K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for White
Draw 4.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 24K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 24K
- Best context
- 58.1% at 2500+ Bullet
- Worst context
- 44.9% at 1800-1999 Rapid
- Average game length
- 35 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.5%
- Draws
- 4.5%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 54.1% at 0-999, 61.2% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 60.1% expected score (73 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (117 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (21 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (201 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (331 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (86 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (395 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (754 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.2% expected score (221 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (800 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (1,459 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (422 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 48.4% expected score (30 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (1,017 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (1,977 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (566 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 41.6% expected score (64 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (1,144 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (2,855 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.9% expected score (727 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 42.5% expected score (45 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (1,373 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (3,443 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (447 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 70.5% expected score (18 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (1,533 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (2,683 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (194 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 61.8% expected score (7 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 58.1% expected score (984 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.4% expected score (298 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Panov Variation scores 50.8% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.3% and 51.4% — from 24K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 24K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Panov Variation win rate?
Playing the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Panov Variation, White wins 48.5%, draws 4.5% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 24K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Panov Variation perform best?
The Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Panov Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 57.9% (1.3K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Panov Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Panov Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 50.3% in Blitz (14K games) against 49.2% in Rapid (2.7K games).
How sharp is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Panov Variation?
The Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Panov Variation has a sharpness score of 95.5 (very decisive), meaning 95.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Panov Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 52.9%, draws 1.6% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.8%. It rests on 211 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Panov Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 52.1%, draws 3.3% and loses 44.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 620 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Panov Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 47.4%, draws 3.9% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Panov Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 48.5%, draws 2.9% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 2.7K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Panov Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 47.0%, draws 3.7% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 3.6K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Panov Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 46.1%, draws 4.5% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 4.8K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Panov Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 47.9%, draws 5.2% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 5.3K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Panov Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 50.9%, draws 5.4% and loses 43.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.6%. It rests on 4.4K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Panov Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 54.8%, draws 6.3% and loses 39.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.9%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games, which average 44 moves.
What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Panov Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 50.7%, draws 3.3% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 7.5K Lichess games.
What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Panov Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 47.9%, draws 4.9% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 14K Lichess games.
What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Panov Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 46.2%, draws 5.9% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 2.7K Lichess games.
What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Panov Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 43.4%, draws 6.8% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.8%. It rests on 168 Lichess games.
Is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Panov Variation a good opening?
The Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Panov Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 48.5% of its games and loses 47.0%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.