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Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation

2.9M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation is balanced for Black at 50.5% expected score.

Results are roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

You play
Playable
Rating
Time
Black Expected Score50.5%Based on 2.9M gamesWin + ½×draw — predicts rating gain better than win rate
45%50.5%55%
Tight estimate: 50.5% (±0.1%, huge sample)
Min adv+0.8%
ContextAll ratings · All speeds · n=2.9M
Outcome Distribution
2...d5
Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation
Analyzen=2.9M
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.8%

Sharpness — share of games that end decisively

What is the Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation has a 50.5% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 50.4% and 50.5%), based on 2.9M Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 48% → 42%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 47.9% win rate (241,782 games)
  • 1000-1199: 46.7% win rate (175,923 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.4% win rate (189,891 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.8% win rate (267,196 games)
  • 1600-1799: 49.7% win rate (389,299 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.2% win rate (605,792 games)
  • 2000-2199: 47.7% win rate (624,499 games)
  • 2200-2499: 45.4% win rate (367,491 games)
  • 2500+: 42.2% win rate (71,430 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~49%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 49.0% win rate (15,034 games)
  • Bullet: 48.2% win rate (1,238,579 games)
  • Blitz: 48.1% win rate (1,285,680 games)
  • Rapid: 47.5% win rate (374,632 games)
  • Classical: 46.9% win rate (19,378 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter — click it again to clear. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (88 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (30,763 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (112,495 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (97,628 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 52.3% expected score (808 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 56.3% expected score (339 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (39,891 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (69,758 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (63,308 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 47.2% expected score (2,627 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 56.3% expected score (1,296 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (61,016 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (81,537 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (41,789 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 47.3% expected score (4,253 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 53.5% expected score (2,963 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (102,138 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (122,649 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (35,678 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 48.5% expected score (3,768 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4,492 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (158,201 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (179,750 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (42,906 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.0% expected score (3,950 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 47.4% expected score (3,807 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (239,704 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (309,800 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (49,426 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.0% expected score (3,055 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 45.0% expected score (1,528 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (292,336 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (295,259 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (34,585 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 51.6% expected score (791 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 42.5% expected score (456 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (248,687 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (109,053 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (9,169 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 37.5% expected score (126 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 47.8% expected score (65 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (65,843 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.4% expected score (5,379 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 39.0% expected score (143 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Alekhine Defense
50.7%
Variations (5)
Alekhine Defense: Maróczy Variation
49.0%
Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation
49.9%
Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation
47.4%
Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Geschev Gambit
47.6%
Alekhine Defense: Two Pawns Attack
49.1%
Continuations (2)
Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Geschev Gambit
47.6%
Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Myers Gambit
50.9%
Analyze Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates at your level with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation win rate?

The Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation has a 47.1% (90% CI: 47.1%-47.2%) win rate for white, based on 2.9M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation perform best?

The Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 50.6% win rate for white (71K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation better in blitz or rapid?

UltraBullet (48.9%) outperforms Blitz (46.2%) by 2.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation?

The Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation has a sharpness score of 95.2 (very decisive), meaning 95.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation has a 47.3% (90% CI: 47.1%-47.4%) win rate for white, based on 242K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation has a 49.2% (90% CI: 49.0%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 176K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation has a 48.0% (90% CI: 47.8%-48.2%) win rate for white, based on 190K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation has a 46.7% (90% CI: 46.5%-46.8%) win rate for white, based on 267K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation has a 46.2% (90% CI: 46.1%-46.3%) win rate for white, based on 389K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation has a 45.9% (90% CI: 45.8%-46.0%) win rate for white, based on 606K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation has a 46.8% (90% CI: 46.7%-46.9%) win rate for white, based on 624K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation has a 48.6% (90% CI: 48.4%-48.7%) win rate for white, based on 367K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.0% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation has a 50.6% (90% CI: 50.3%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 71K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 7.2% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.3%-49.6%) win rate for white (15K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.0%.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation has a 48.1% (90% CI: 48.0%-48.2%) win rate for white (1.2M Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation has a 46.2% (90% CI: 46.2%-46.3%) win rate for white (1.3M Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.6%.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation has a 46.7% (90% CI: 46.5%-46.8%) win rate for white (375K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.8%.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation has a 47.2% (90% CI: 46.6%-47.8%) win rate for white (19K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.9%.

Is the Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation a good opening?

The Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation is statistically balanced with a 47.1% (90% CI: 47.1%-47.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.