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Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation

1.2M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score49.7%Range (90% confident): 49.7% – 49.8%Based on 1.2M games
0%49.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 49.7% – 49.8%
Outcome Distribution
47.4%4.6%48.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
5.exd6
Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation
Analyzen=1.2M
Avg Length37 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.6%

What is the Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation has a 49.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 49.7% and 49.8%), based on 1.2M Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~51%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 50.5% win rate (1,200 games)
  • 1000-1199: 50.7% win rate (4,791 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.7% win rate (17,514 games)
  • 1400-1599: 48.7% win rate (62,050 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.1% win rate (171,526 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.5% win rate (341,405 games)
  • 2000-2199: 47.1% win rate (343,002 games)
  • 2200-2499: 48.8% win rate (211,707 games)
  • 2500+: 50.0% win rate (36,944 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (52%), worst in Blitz (47%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 51.5% win rate (458 games)
  • Bullet: 48.3% win rate (552,817 games)
  • Blitz: 46.6% win rate (565,319 games)
  • Rapid: 47.4% win rate (68,716 games)
  • Classical: 48.8% win rate (2,829 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (750 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 55.9% expected score (365 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 64.6% expected score (81 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 47.6% expected score (19 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (3,079 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.9% expected score (1,436 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 58.5% expected score (252 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 53.7% expected score (39 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (10,614 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (6,111 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 58.6% expected score (732 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 47.5% expected score (18 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 46.0% expected score (98 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (31,814 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (27,262 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.6% expected score (2,687 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 62.1% expected score (189 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 51.6% expected score (96 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (71,031 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (89,594 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (10,189 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 48.8% expected score (616 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 58.9% expected score (140 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (123,585 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (191,812 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (24,581 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.0% expected score (1,287 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 53.2% expected score (46 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (148,457 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (171,751 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (22,167 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 56.0% expected score (581 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (16 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (132,223 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (71,546 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (7,794 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 65.5% expected score (128 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (31,264 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.2% expected score (5,442 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 62.8% expected score (233 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 42.3% expected score (5 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Alekhine Defense
50.7%
Variations (5)
Alekhine Defense: Balogh Variation
48.3%
Alekhine Defense: Brooklyn Variation
50.9%
Alekhine Defense: Brooklyn Variation, Everglades Variation
53.3%
Alekhine Defense: Buckley Attack
49.7%
Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation, Karpov Variation
47.5%
Continuations (2)
Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation, Karpov Variation
47.5%
Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation, Voronezh Variation
53.3%
Analyze Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation win rate?

The Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation has a 47.4% (90% CI: 47.4%-47.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.2M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation perform best?

The Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 50.0% win rate for white (37K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (48.3%) outperforms Blitz (46.6%) by 1.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation?

The Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation has a sharpness score of 95.4 (very decisive), meaning 95.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation has a 50.5% (90% CI: 48.1%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 1.3% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 49.5%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 4.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 1.7% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation has a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.1%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 18K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 1.8% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation has a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.3%-49.0%) win rate for white, based on 62K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation has a 47.1% (90% CI: 46.9%-47.3%) win rate for white, based on 172K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation has a 46.5% (90% CI: 46.4%-46.7%) win rate for white, based on 341K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation has a 47.1% (90% CI: 46.9%-47.2%) win rate for white, based on 343K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation has a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.6%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 212K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.6%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 37K Lichess games. Average game length is 44 moves with a 7.3% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation has a 51.5% (90% CI: 47.6%-55.3%) win rate for white (458 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.4%.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation has a 48.3% (90% CI: 48.1%-48.4%) win rate for white (553K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.5%.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation has a 46.6% (90% CI: 46.5%-46.7%) win rate for white (565K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.3%.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation has a 47.4% (90% CI: 47.1%-47.7%) win rate for white (69K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.6%.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation has a 48.8% (90% CI: 47.3%-50.4%) win rate for white (2.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.1%.

Is the Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation a good opening?

The Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation is statistically balanced with a 47.4% (90% CI: 47.4%-47.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.