Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation
1.4M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
48.4%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 48.5%.
Measured over 1.4M games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 1.4M games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 1.4M
- Best context
- 51.3% at 0-999 Bullet
- Worst context
- 38.0% at 1800-1999 UltraBullet
- Average game length
- 34 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.5%
- Draws
- 3.5%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 49.5%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 46.4% expected score (26 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (14,015 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (32,286 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (16,801 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 56.3% expected score (149 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 57.3% expected score (129 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (22,622 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (44,584 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 43.9% expected score (18,766 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 43.0% expected score (539 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 46.0% expected score (734 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (39,393 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (66,808 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.6% expected score (21,993 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 44.9% expected score (1,138 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 48.7% expected score (1,444 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (63,879 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (94,438 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (27,682 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.7% expected score (1,871 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 44.3% expected score (2,688 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (90,012 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (121,912 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (30,808 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.6% expected score (2,055 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 38.1% expected score (2,304 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (117,250 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (143,721 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (26,681 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.6% expected score (1,188 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 39.1% expected score (835 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (114,063 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (102,147 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (11,598 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 46.4% expected score (164 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 38.3% expected score (309 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (87,618 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (32,945 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (2,490 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 35.1% expected score (32 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.4% expected score (18,142 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.6% expected score (1,618 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 54.7% expected score (20 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation scores 48.4% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.3% and 48.5% — from 1.4M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 1.4M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation win rate?
Playing the Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation, Black wins 46.6%, draws 3.5% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 1.4M rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation perform best?
The Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 49.4% (291K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 48.7% in Blitz (640K games) against 47.4% in Rapid (157K games).
How sharp is the Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation?
The Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation has a sharpness score of 96.5 (very decisive), meaning 96.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
What is the Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 46.0%, draws 3.4% and loses 50.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 63K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 45.6%, draws 2.8% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 87K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 46.7%, draws 2.7% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 130K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 47.2%, draws 2.8% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 189K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 47.6%, draws 3.2% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 247K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 47.5%, draws 3.7% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 291K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 46.2%, draws 4.1% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 229K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 44.4%, draws 4.7% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 123K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 41.4%, draws 5.8% and loses 52.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.3%. It rests on 20K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.
What is the Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, Black wins 42.3%, draws 1.3% and loses 56.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.0%. It rests on 8.5K Lichess games.
What is the Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 47.2%, draws 2.6% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 567K Lichess games.
What is the Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 46.6%, draws 4.1% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 640K Lichess games.
What is the Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 45.1%, draws 4.6% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 157K Lichess games.
What is the Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 45.1%, draws 5.2% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 7.1K Lichess games.
Is the Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation a good opening?
The Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.6% of its games and loses 49.9%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.