12K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Alekhine Defense: Welling Variation has a 50.3% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 49.6% and 51.1%), based on 12K Lichess games.
Improves with rating: 43% → 53%
Best in Classical (52%), worst in UltraBullet (46%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Alekhine Defense: Welling Variation has a 48.3% (90% CI: 47.6%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 12K rated games from Lichess.
The Alekhine Defense: Welling Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 52.9% win rate for white (1.3K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (49.4%) outperforms Rapid (47.7%) by 1.7%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Alekhine Defense: Welling Variation has a sharpness score of 96.0 (very decisive), meaning 96.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
At 0-999 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Welling Variation has a 43.4% (90% CI: 36.8%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 147 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Welling Variation has a 51.1% (90% CI: 44.5%-57.7%) win rate for white, based on 154 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 7.4% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Welling Variation has a 47.5% (90% CI: 42.8%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 303 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Welling Variation has a 51.7% (90% CI: 48.4%-55.0%) win rate for white, based on 607 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Welling Variation has a 48.0% (90% CI: 45.5%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Welling Variation has a 47.8% (90% CI: 46.1%-49.5%) win rate for white, based on 2.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Welling Variation has a 47.2% (90% CI: 45.7%-48.7%) win rate for white, based on 2.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Welling Variation has a 47.5% (90% CI: 46.0%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 3.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Welling Variation has a 52.9% (90% CI: 50.6%-55.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Alekhine Defense: Welling Variation has a 49.4% (90% CI: 48.4%-50.4%) win rate for white (6.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.0%.
In Blitz games, the Alekhine Defense: Welling Variation has a 47.0% (90% CI: 45.8%-48.1%) win rate for white (5.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.2%.
In Rapid games, the Alekhine Defense: Welling Variation has a 47.7% (90% CI: 44.2%-51.3%) win rate for white (534 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.9%.
The Alekhine Defense: Welling Variation is statistically balanced with a 48.3% (90% CI: 47.6%-49.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.