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Alekhine Defense: Two Pawns Attack, Mikenas Variation

3.4K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

Alekhine Defense: Two Pawns Attack, Mikenas Variation is balanced for Black at 50.3% expected score.

Results are roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

You play
Playable
Rating
Time
Black Expected Score50.3%Based on 3.4K gamesWin + ½×draw — predicts rating gain better than win rate
45%50.3%55%
Range (90% confident): 48.9% – 51.7%
Min adv-2.2%
ContextAll ratings · All speeds · n=3.4K
Outcome Distribution
6...d6
Alekhine Defense: Two Pawns Attack, Mikenas Variation
Analyzen=3.4K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.0%

Sharpness — share of games that end decisively

What is the Alekhine Defense: Two Pawns Attack, Mikenas Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Alekhine Defense: Two Pawns Attack, Mikenas Variation has a 50.3% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 48.9% and 51.7%), based on 3.4K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 82% → 43%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 81.8% win rate (4 games)
  • 1000-1199: 53.5% win rate (20 games)
  • 1200-1399: 45.1% win rate (24 games)
  • 1400-1599: 55.6% win rate (57 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.3% win rate (101 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.0% win rate (458 games)
  • 2000-2199: 49.0% win rate (1,242 games)
  • 2200-2499: 46.9% win rate (1,245 games)
  • 2500+: 43.2% win rate (275 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (60%), worst in Classical (11%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 60.0% win rate (1 games)
  • Bullet: 47.8% win rate (1,589 games)
  • Blitz: 47.9% win rate (1,779 games)
  • Rapid: 44.1% win rate (54 games)
  • Classical: 11.1% win rate (3 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter — click it again to clear. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999———
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599——
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199——
2200-2499——
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (13 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (10 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (21 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 58.7% expected score (33 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 27.8% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (46 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (46 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (204 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (244 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 40.5% expected score (9 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (424 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (800 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.1% expected score (18 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (637 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (592 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (16 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (231 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 36.9% expected score (44 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Alekhine Defense
50.7%
Variations (5)
Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation
47.1%
Alekhine Defense: Maróczy Variation
49.0%
Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation
49.9%
Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation
47.4%
Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Geschev Gambit
47.6%
Analyze Alekhine Defense: Two Pawns Attack, Mikenas Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates at your level with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Alekhine Defense: Two Pawns Attack, Mikenas Variation win rate?

The Alekhine Defense: Two Pawns Attack, Mikenas Variation has a 47.2% (90% CI: 45.8%-48.6%) win rate for white, based on 3.4K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Alekhine Defense: Two Pawns Attack, Mikenas Variation perform best?

The Alekhine Defense: Two Pawns Attack, Mikenas Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 47.9% win rate for white (1.2K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Alekhine Defense: Two Pawns Attack, Mikenas Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (48.0%) outperforms Rapid (47.7%) by 0.3%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Alekhine Defense: Two Pawns Attack, Mikenas Variation?

The Alekhine Defense: Two Pawns Attack, Mikenas Variation has a sharpness score of 95.0 (very decisive), meaning 95.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Two Pawns Attack, Mikenas Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Two Pawns Attack, Mikenas Variation has a 47.3% (90% CI: 39.3%-55.4%) win rate for white, based on 101 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Two Pawns Attack, Mikenas Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Two Pawns Attack, Mikenas Variation has a 47.1% (90% CI: 43.3%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 458 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Two Pawns Attack, Mikenas Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Two Pawns Attack, Mikenas Variation has a 46.8% (90% CI: 44.5%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Two Pawns Attack, Mikenas Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Two Pawns Attack, Mikenas Variation has a 47.9% (90% CI: 45.6%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Two Pawns Attack, Mikenas Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Two Pawns Attack, Mikenas Variation has a 48.3% (90% CI: 43.4%-53.2%) win rate for white, based on 275 Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 8.5% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Two Pawns Attack, Mikenas Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Alekhine Defense: Two Pawns Attack, Mikenas Variation has a 48.0% (90% CI: 45.9%-50.1%) win rate for white (1.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Two Pawns Attack, Mikenas Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Alekhine Defense: Two Pawns Attack, Mikenas Variation has a 46.4% (90% CI: 44.4%-48.3%) win rate for white (1.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.7%.

Is the Alekhine Defense: Two Pawns Attack, Mikenas Variation a good opening?

The Alekhine Defense: Two Pawns Attack, Mikenas Variation is statistically balanced with a 47.2% (90% CI: 45.8%-48.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.